Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1c208cec4da139c9bebf834d44e691a2fc96dc4aedfd062c3f10baf9b200416

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 11, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $2,612,755
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $913,017

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,612,755 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x14f6…15c4backed Yes	0c	671,067$671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$671.07	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	19cpaid	+15%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69a8…aba9backed Yes	0c	569,509$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.51	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	33cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d3e…eec6backed Yes	0c	462,965$463 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.97	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes	1c	105,022$935 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$935.15	138	23.2%32 W · 106 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes	1c	50,708$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.66	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes	1c	35,817$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.17	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes	1c	15,000$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.47	86	7%6 W · 80 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes	0c	13,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	94	14.9%14 W · 80 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+86.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	10,996$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.56	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	10,410$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.26	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xccaa…705ebacked Yes	1c	10,184$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes	1c	10,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…f440backed Yes	1c	10,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes	2c	9,504$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.99	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9f…8680backed Yes	2c	9,000$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.09	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	8cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x772e…2758backed Yes	0c	9,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc321…4758backed Yes	3c	8,629$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x897a…2078backed Yes	1c	8,060$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.2	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2234…8d2ebacked Yes	1c	7,768$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.83	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	7,526$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.68	228	2.6%6 W · 222 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	1c	7,218$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.08	76	11.8%9 W · 67 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	0c	7,217$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.65	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1263…f255backed Yes	2c	6,848$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.15	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	1c	6,297$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.94	155	23.2%36 W · 119 L	+12.1wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x07c9…4fa3backed Yes	2c	6,242$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.67	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes	2c	6,000$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.54	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9629…b148backed Yes	0c	6,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes	1c	5,933$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.91	222	27%60 W · 162 L	+17.8wins	+0.08per pick	19cpaid	+13%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes	1c	5,826$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.62	144	2.8%4 W · 140 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes	1c	5,776$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.37	39	25.6%10 W · 29 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	17cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	1c	5,737$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.09	116	15.5%18 W · 98 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	5,438$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.72	247	6.9%17 W · 230 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	5,386$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.62	199	5%10 W · 189 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes	1c	5,188$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.85	147	7.5%11 W · 136 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes	2c	5,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	362	27.9%101 W · 261 L	+11.6wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…8556backed Yes	3c	4,630$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	4,568$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.41	462	5%23 W · 439 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	4,284$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.99	419	5.3%22 W · 397 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes	1c	3,782$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.29	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…2995backed Yes	3c	3,604$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff3…7737backed Yes	1c	3,563$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.89	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4363…d6e0backed Yes	2c	3,400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes	1c	3,301$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.81	48	25%12 W · 36 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+187.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes	1c	3,300$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.71	115	1.7%2 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes	2c	3,223$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.15	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes	1c	3,150$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	2c	2,937$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.99	243	8.2%20 W · 223 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee83…d382backed Yes	1c	2,861$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	2,836$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.94	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Yes	2c	2,757$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	1c	2,677$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.83	171	11.7%20 W · 151 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	2,569$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.42	238	4.6%11 W · 227 L	-12.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a81…420fbacked Yes	2c	2,553$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	7cpaid	-77.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes	2c	2,500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.8	96	5.2%5 W · 91 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes	4c	2,500$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.27	75	20%15 W · 60 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c4…02c9backed Yes	3c	2,496$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e27…3193backed Yes	2c	2,469$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.75	35	0%0 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe67…3932backed Yes	2c	2,387$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x961a…73acbacked Yes	1c	2,342$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.69	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed Yes	2c	2,102$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.55	73	30.1%22 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes	1c	2,085$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.78	68	4.4%3 W · 65 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-87.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	2,052$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	170	3.5%6 W · 164 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51b8…1df6backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes	2c	1,996$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.77	82	24.4%20 W · 62 L	+8.3wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+64%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x607a…1813backed Yes	2c	1,942$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.32	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2665…a8fcbacked Yes	1c	1,931$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6190…903abacked Yes	1c	1,877$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.36	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd754…8e70backed Yes	1c	1,837$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-75.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x624c…cdc7backed Yes	2c	1,781$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.41	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x092e…f908backed Yes	3c	1,751$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd97…776cbacked Yes	6c	1,739$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-82.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes	2c	1,721$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x78d5…a4bcbacked Yes	1c	1,671$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93bd…59cebacked Yes	2c	1,650$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.63	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	+3.8wins	+0.14per pick	18cpaid	+279.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d56…046fbacked Yes	1c	1,528$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x623f…d2a9backed Yes	2c	1,514$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.77	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes	1c	1,435$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.06	64	7.8%5 W · 59 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x472b…6339backed Yes	1c	1,351$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19e2…be9bbacked Yes	2c	1,332$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…feddbacked Yes	2c	1,294$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes	1c	1,250$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cef…759ebacked Yes	1c	1,200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	22	0%0 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…4fccbacked Yes	5c	1,194$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.21	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa401…1e48backed Yes	2c	1,155$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf9…1cc3backed Yes	1c	1,138$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.16per pick	18cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes	1c	1,137$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	72	0%0 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8210…aa2cbacked Yes	2c	1,114$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e75…7ee4backed Yes	1c	1,105$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	1c	1,084$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	281	26.3%74 W · 207 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b79…d63fbacked Yes	2c	1,054$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.73	48	27.1%13 W · 35 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c40…3d64backed Yes	1c	1,050$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	1c	1,041$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…4073backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	984.73$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.84	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11e4…0992backed Yes	5c	960.16$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.17	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1825…7ef9backed Yes	5c	930.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6826…f19dbacked Yes	2c	900.1$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc50…df9bbacked Yes	1c	867.24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.42	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+3.6wins	+0.20per pick	30cpaid	+39.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37a0…8423backed Yes	2c	828.31$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+84.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8393…9fd6backed Yes	2c	814.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event