Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd45f9b0fe219805c2a0f3b93aa739e9b22535717a3db23ee369852b31810d2cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $891,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $982,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $891,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 141 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e7a…565dbacked Yes | 6c | 101,637$5,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,860.64 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 1c | 101,000$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…2093backed Yes | 1c | 38,100$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.67 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +109.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 1c | 30,069$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.41 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…2995backed Yes | 1c | 19,112$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…3bd1backed Yes | 0c | 10,800$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…705ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,675$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.87 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 6c | 6,515$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.23 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 4c | 6,481$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.38 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,473$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…6253backed Yes | 1c | 6,036$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.14 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…d50abacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ab…d2febacked Yes | 7c | 5,594$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 7c | 5,371$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.26 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,924$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 3c | 4,344$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.58 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed4…c735backed Yes | 1c | 4,228$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 3c | 4,114$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.02 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.09 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 3,434$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…a86cbacked Yes | 1c | 3,250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,205$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.53 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes | 2c | 3,187$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 3,153$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,128$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.37 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 3,103$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.45 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 3,008$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.47 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 2,893$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.02 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4a…e1babacked Yes | 1c | 2,700$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30b…1a5cbacked Yes | 8c | 2,463$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 5c | 2,348$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,289$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.38 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 2,234$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 2,193$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.76 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…ea4cbacked Yes | 9c | 2,150$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5015…0d03backed Yes | 8c | 2,137$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.21per pick | 22cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…7d80backed Yes | 5c | 2,100$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,056$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefb5…9452backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe537…1eebbacked Yes | 11c | 1,963$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 18cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 6c | 1,900$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 7c | 1,893$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.73 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,831$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.7 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0280…e729backed Yes | 6c | 1,711$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,700$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,633$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 4c | 1,600$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…a11dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,596$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f07…a742backed Yes | 6c | 1,579$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…bad2backed Yes | 8c | 1,537$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…cabebacked Yes | 1c | 1,517$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…ffbcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,455$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 3c | 1,450$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…f342backed Yes | 1c | 1,372$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x807e…5405backed Yes | 5c | 1,368$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.38 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…bf79backed Yes | 8c | 1,322$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…a3a4backed Yes | 4c | 1,321$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5575…f3cabacked Yes | 8c | 1,273$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x820a…ce1cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,237$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,200$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3f…f384backed Yes | 8c | 1,139$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…40dbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,134$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e75…7ee4backed Yes | 1c | 1,122$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…694dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,080$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed Yes | 2c | 1,058$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544d…c59cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,047$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37be…d876backed Yes | 10c | 1,037$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 1,010$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…8210backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…6639backed Yes | 6c | 999.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…f440backed Yes | 4c | 976.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2716…ef7dbacked Yes | 7c | 946.44$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes | 2c | 938.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9460…7b3cbacked Yes | 11c | 935.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…be9bbacked Yes | 5c | 926.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd5…915bbacked Yes | 5c | 910.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…0f2fbacked Yes | 6c | 908.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…7ba1backed Yes | 4c | 893.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…f4a4backed Yes | 6c | 721.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c1…e407backed Yes | 7c | 717.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 683.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf80a…a38ebacked Yes | 6c | 673.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f2debacked Yes | 8c | 656.49$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3903…0a7ebacked Yes | 7c | 647.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2d…f266backed Yes | 8c | 646.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…7de7backed Yes | 9c | 633.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d9…ada1backed Yes | 8c | 626.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Yes | 5c | 619.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f15…b872backed Yes | 3c | 600.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf274…37f4backed Yes | 3c | 596.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f96…9dd5backed Yes | 4c | 595.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…21bebacked Yes | 6c | 588.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.41 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d5…fe80backed Yes | 6c | 583.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66a…3e6dbacked Yes | 6c | 574.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9c…f2bdbacked Yes | 6c | 560.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e1…e468backed Yes | 7c | 552.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.