TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,111,982
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$671,343

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,111,982 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes0c60,140$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.283810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c44,000$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23517111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes1c35,917$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5813823.2%32 W · 106 L+0.6wins0.00per pick23cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7909…de2ebacked Yes1c35,603$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes1c34,384$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.3611842.4%50 W · 68 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…f757backed Yes2c22,504$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.4380%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes2c21,336$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.2814039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x4068…6150backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfb54…86bebacked Yes3c19,200$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.991216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes1c18,000$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11440433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes1c16,496$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.819736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes3c14,318$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.15387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes2c13,234$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.56028.3%17 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…82acbacked Yes1c13,020$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.346142.6%26 W · 35 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+136.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c12,778$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.677611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb21…65a0backed Yes2c12,658$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07dd…2038backed Yes1c12,270$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.62287.1%2 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+200.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c12,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c11,960$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.177135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…f0abbacked Yes3c11,876$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35050%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes2c11,810$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.9636227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c11,771$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.11,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes2c11,701$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.67732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0759…9d71backed Yes2c11,000$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-58.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae8d…52f1backed Yes3c10,762$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-36%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c10,486$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.04964.2%4 W · 92 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes2c10,266$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7215523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x04f8…6516backed Yes1c10,192$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x755e…978bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4be9…1442backed Yes3c10,000$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.831323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e99…994ebacked Yes2c9,422$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1581910.5%2 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c8,999$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.252913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x033c…f779backed Yes1c7,612$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…f440backed Yes2c7,000$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-19.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x712f…65cfbacked Yes2c6,666$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.571428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+287.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07e…7db6backed Yes1c6,453$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.64287.1%2 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-61.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c6,375$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.431995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes2c6,000$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.43867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes1c6,000$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78cf…c9aabacked Yes2c6,000$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f50…d54fbacked Yes4c5,873$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+297.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes1c5,550$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.6812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick5cpaid-53.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes2c5,503$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.192476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c5,460$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.063103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes2c5,321$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.381477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes2c5,000$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.197610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c4,953$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.911151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac3e…6603backed Yes1c4,913$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3580%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c4,891$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.644625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e2…2093backed Yes2c4,875$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.52213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+109.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes2c4,821$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.761442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes3c4,651$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.86437%3 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9f…8680backed Yes2c4,500$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.371414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-33.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Yes2c4,329$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.265922%13 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes2c4,253$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.88965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe361…96cabacked Yes2c4,200$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3c4…0d19backed Yes1c4,167$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502623.1%6 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-48.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9bbf…edb8backed Yes2c4,001$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001822.2%4 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick16cpaid+197.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a41…bc76backed Yes2c4,000$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+60.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe537…1eebbacked Yes5c3,992$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes2c3,770$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.794195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes1c3,430$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.58611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4042…ddfcbacked Yes2c3,169$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.122317.4%4 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick18cpaid+97.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a81…420fbacked Yes1c3,128$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25362.8%1 W · 35 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-77.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes1c3,071$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.88684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334610.9%5 W · 41 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-45%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes2c2,898$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.5310435.6%37 W · 67 L+7.5wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c2,890$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4711615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a3…25d8backed Yes2c2,617$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.07520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93bd…59cebacked Yes2c2,600$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.22832.1%9 W · 19 L+3.8wins+0.14per pick18cpaid+279.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x092e…f908backed Yes2c2,276$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes2c2,237$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.584136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes2c2,184$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.27720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c2,173$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.952384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed Yes2c2,167$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.167330.1%22 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes1c2,140$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.543925.6%10 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e27…3193backed Yes3c2,071$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.49350%0 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes1c2,050$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0525518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes1c2,014$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.371703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a5b…1439backed Yes3c2,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-45.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes2c1,940$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.983414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes1c1,760$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.087726%20 W · 57 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes2c1,755$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.699250%46 W · 46 L+10.1wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+63.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes2c1,732$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.03120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf964…6e97backed Yes2c1,645$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick12cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes2c1,614$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.298224.4%20 W · 62 L+8.3wins+0.10per pick14cpaid+64%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x920b…d5cdbacked Yes2c1,588$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5554…b12dbacked Yes2c1,574$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.96137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes2c1,520$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0822227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x05cb…f625backed Yes2c1,515$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+62.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e1d…0e07backed Yes1c1,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick3cpaid-30.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc406…07d9backed Yes2c1,449$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9810354.4%56 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb04…ff46backed Yes1c1,358$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9de4…7bb5backed Yes2c1,318$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.31742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick18cpaid+49.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes1c1,302$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.587513.3%10 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe67…3932backed Yes2c1,254$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3132…cae8backed Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10368.3%3 W · 33 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebda…5208backed Yes2c1,187$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252114.3%3 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+91.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5494…85febacked Yes2c1,091$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x607a…1813backed Yes2c1,074$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.94147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-78.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.