Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e2ab9285767e2ebb393c2cea1c0fd7058108827ab15a8105bae7e4c1cd6f7ca

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 3, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $264,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $168,342

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $264,639 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	0c	68,159$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b4a…e1babacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59bc…3d81backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	-8.6wins	-0.19per pick	35cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes	2c	9,906$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.7	72	0%0 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes	9c	4,183$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.82	77	32.5%25 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes	3c	3,300$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	255	18%46 W · 209 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	6c	2,662$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.16	243	8.2%20 W · 223 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x133d…eccebacked Yes	17c	2,335$391 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.08	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	6c	2,329$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.67	116	15.5%18 W · 98 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95e1…e468backed Yes	3c	2,198$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.72	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-42%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	8c	2,180$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.72	155	23.2%36 W · 119 L	+12.1wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc25a…7259backed Yes	16c	2,138$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.95	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes	7c	2,063$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.31	97	36.1%35 W · 62 L	+5.6wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf072…cee7backed Yes	8c	2,060$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.93	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	2,050$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.91	247	6.9%17 W · 230 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cd5…915bbacked Yes	7c	1,990$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.9	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,932$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.03	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes	6c	1,911$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.32	144	2.8%4 W · 140 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6355…8edfbacked Yes	3c	1,864$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes	5c	1,835$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.3	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…ffbcbacked Yes	7c	1,738$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes	6c	1,661$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.47	147	7.5%11 W · 136 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,482$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.7	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	6c	1,472$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.41	462	5%23 W · 439 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…24b5backed Yes	2c	1,437$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.91	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf518…1e76backed Yes	8c	1,016$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9151…40dbbacked Yes	2c	1,015$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	10c	1,013$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.25	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	821.88$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.02	238	4.6%11 W · 227 L	-12.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36c3…a901backed Yes	13c	808.39$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.9	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe313…1c9bbacked Yes	13c	794.72$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.6wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	690.62$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.09	896	17.1%153 W · 743 L	-57.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-35%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb053…8210backed Yes	15c	671.96$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes	5c	646.77$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.58	68	4.4%3 W · 65 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-87.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03cd…d07bbacked Yes	13c	515.95$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.17	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x978a…804fbacked Yes	5c	482.08$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.34	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3903…0a7ebacked Yes	3c	466.73$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes	3c	386.66$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c81…8eacbacked Yes	10c	360$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea7f…9637backed Yes	10c	310$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe082…04bcbacked Yes	17c	293.7$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bd6…464dbacked Yes	12c	261.4$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.6wins	+0.52per pick	14cpaid	+841.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes	7c	259.87$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.87	162	46.3%75 W · 87 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	4c	247.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	170	3.5%6 W · 164 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes	14c	245.22$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.18	141	29.8%42 W · 99 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9a64…9f01backed Yes	8c	236.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	226.05$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.77	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	8c	220.89$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	76	11.8%9 W · 67 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa12c…34eabacked Yes	14c	207.85$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	143	0.7%1 W · 142 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	4cpaid	-92.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x569a…dd62backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	12c	199.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	857	25.2%216 W · 641 L	-115.1wins	-0.13per pick	39cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5b24…70fabacked Yes	11c	183.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f0b…fde0backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccee…f36dbacked Yes	12c	169.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes	13c	161.69$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.02	85	15.3%13 W · 72 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1947…cd4fbacked Yes	11c	131.27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-55.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30cc…331abacked Yes	16c	121.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…2ee2backed Yes	17c	116.01$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.67	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50da…9ce6backed Yes	18c	114.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc748…e8c1backed Yes	18c	112.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc63b…da3fbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	111	53.2%59 W · 52 L	+11.8wins	+0.11per pick	42cpaid	+45.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd4ea…533fbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	39	7.7%3 W · 36 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe672…08ecbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x95f5…4377backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x144e…a61cbacked Yes	18c	94.28$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.78	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes	12c	91.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a67…b16bbacked Yes	12c	84.15$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaec6…33f2backed No	77c	30.43$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x223e…184ebacked Yes	50c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No	79c	14.26$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3	292	54.8%160 W · 132 L	+18.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event