Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92d0b95bc8614a72eb2c05e649e4870616199c8a299c0bf241160b10e7be5292
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $920,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $406,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $920,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96ef…5523backed Yes | 1c | 89,061$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.99 | 118 | 42.4%50 W · 68 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 47,740$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.66 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 27,302$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.79 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 26,288$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.84 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes | 0c | 23,485$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 0c | 20,642$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…f0abbacked Yes | 2c | 20,379$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4f…07c4backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb54…86bebacked Yes | 2c | 19,885$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 0c | 16,141$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 1c | 15,000$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.79 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 14,430$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.62 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…96cabacked Yes | 1c | 13,655$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 13,465$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.27 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e99…994ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,918$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 1c | 12,859$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb21…65a0backed Yes | 2c | 12,556$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 1c | 12,400$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e27…3193backed Yes | 2c | 10,708$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.5 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes | 1c | 10,173$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 1c | 10,085$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…f440backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd43f…b890backed Yes | 2c | 9,563$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8d…52f1backed Yes | 2c | 9,531$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -36%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 1c | 9,465$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,316$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.28 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 1c | 8,010$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…59cebacked Yes | 1c | 6,563$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.26 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +279.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f50…d54fbacked Yes | 4c | 6,558$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +297.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 2c | 6,392$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f5…9663backed Yes | 1c | 6,338$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.71 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 1c | 6,172$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 1c | 5,914$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,878$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 1c | 5,703$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 1c | 5,581$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.98 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…7db6backed Yes | 1c | 5,130$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,112$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 5,065$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…0cc1backed Yes | 1c | 5,017$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…2038backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +200.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 1c | 4,716$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +287.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 4,455$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 4,449$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 1c | 4,209$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 4,193$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f67…de01backed Yes | 1c | 4,167$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 1c | 4,150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 4,005$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 1c | 3,990$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 3,850$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 1c | 3,706$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 105 | 20%21 W · 84 L | -14.9wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x87ff…6632backed Yes | 1c | 3,130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -45%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes | 3c | 2,977$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,764$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 1c | 2,684$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 21cpaid | +191.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb3…4b43backed Yes | 1c | 2,676$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,645$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,636$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 2,605$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 1c | 2,600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…361cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…dc3cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,433$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d51…6c59backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…be9bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,154$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x607a…1813backed Yes | 1c | 2,109$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…5208backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…1439backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 1c | 1,937$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 70 | 2.9%2 W · 68 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,911$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed Yes | 1c | 1,860$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfed…61b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 1c | 1,750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa963…8301backed Yes | 1c | 1,629$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…04babacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,598$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…3149backed Yes | 1c | 1,570$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,548$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…0861backed Yes | 1c | 1,514$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb04…ff46backed Yes | 1c | 1,461$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,420$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8210…aa2cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,420$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…e9dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,409$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…e4e3backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…420fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,386$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd4…5b42backed Yes | 1c | 1,370$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 1c | 1,360$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092e…f908backed Yes | 4c | 1,324$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…8d6abacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0233…5dd0backed Yes | 1c | 1,095$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd57d…e30fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,039$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…4073backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb45…1a6bbacked Yes | 1c | 999.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.