TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,837,357
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,828,278

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,837,357 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 559 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x75fe…173abacked No0c184,098$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2e2…2093backed No0c151,263$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.682213.6%3 W · 19 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick8cpaid+109.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed No1c140,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed No0c138,741$454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.6443212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7e5…f6fcbacked No0c127,664$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.227116.9%12 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45f2…ac3cbacked Yes5c113,636$5,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,998.591540%6 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+149.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd628…43c1backed No53c96,158$51,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,197.072955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37d1…4e28backed Yes5c79,492$3,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75,806.251752.9%9 W · 8 L+5.1wins+0.30per pick23cpaid+184.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes43c65,064$27,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,222.336227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…34d2backed No0c57,986$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1701250%6 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+30.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed No0c55,792$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.793616.7%6 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No1c48,510$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.6921831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes14c47,476$6,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,816.687311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac87…ae28backed Yes31c42,592$13,323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,269.491136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick29cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e17…7151backed Yes4c41,796$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,265.774513.3%6 W · 39 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes37c40,268$14,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,499.9435347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes4c39,350$1,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,865.167611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes5c36,411$1,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,589.0125518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c36,300$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.13103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x863d…ded2backed Yes5c34,558$1,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,774.63862.5%5 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.42per pick21cpaid+411.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x17c0…8ee9backed Yes6c33,673$1,905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,767.78837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+156.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3869…0e3cbacked Yes5c32,763$1,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,025.42650%13 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+195.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No0c31,910$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes10c31,412$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,212.6511615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d81…5c1ebacked Yes18c27,632$4,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,709.111513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick16cpaid+32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c99…a6a0backed No1c26,803$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9488…d531backed Yes10c26,673$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,905.672231.8%7 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid+55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes30c25,937$7,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,170.2848923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c25,748$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,949.177135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes2c23,904$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,423.849410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb147…e177backed No1c23,059$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e99…994ebacked Yes4c22,588$974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,613.511910.5%2 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick4cpaid+43.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80c5…333dbacked Yes6c21,615$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,346.572955.2%16 W · 13 L+5.7wins+0.20per pick35cpaid+113.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xf784…ab48backed No5c20,797$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.684528.9%13 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb8e…b243backed Yes6c19,752$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,554.758845.5%40 W · 48 L+9.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+48.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8989…6e14backed No0c18,500$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81ab…ba97backed Yes5c18,453$901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,551.497330.1%22 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433f…f0cfbacked No1c18,117$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8f6…1905backed Yes6c18,048$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,048.191145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick23cpaid+213.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc410…9201backed Yes5c17,061$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,237.47137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83e0…53e6backed Yes1c16,953$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,748.148230.5%25 W · 57 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x61c3…71b3backed Yes3c16,425$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,921.431526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+176.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79f7…087cbacked No0c15,198$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8517…2ce5backed Yes4c14,648$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,093.07850%4 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.43per pick7cpaid+925.4%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x4576…3370backed No0c14,504$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c14,317$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,109.362913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes6c14,201$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,360.866722.4%15 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c13,120$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,861.571,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes2c13,000$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,781.97626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8df9…468cbacked No1c12,994$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9614227.5%39 W · 103 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15f7…a018backed Yes76c12,739$9,641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,098.283327.3%9 W · 24 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes13c12,668$1,665 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,003.5389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Yes3c12,400$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,087.717150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8d8d…a0d6backed No1c12,314$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed No0c12,260$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.829414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5a…7032backed No1c12,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+359.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9529…7c6abacked No1c11,946$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.332536%9 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b5…8e04backed No1c11,930$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes3c11,382$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,016.131995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x78a2…6658backed No1c11,000$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1131414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb386…74cdbacked Yes3c10,962$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,663.291838.9%7 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+193.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No0c10,939$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.72504%2 W · 48 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-81%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…2038backed Yes1c10,591$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,455.92287.1%2 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+200.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf23…ee81backed Yes2c10,386$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,208.681926.3%5 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick19cpaid+284.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x626f…c1c5backed Yes6c10,307$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,706.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.53per pick14cpaid+737.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes3c10,220$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,902.534625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…6261backed Yes13c10,097$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,806.96633.3%2 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+153.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xadbd…1a7dbacked No2c10,029$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88eb…9394backed Yes5c10,000$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,515.39944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick18cpaid+290.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa453…2b4cbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10240%0 W · 24 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes4c9,897$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,501.336045%27 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82f6…1848backed No1c9,829$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-87.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9186…fad1backed Yes31c9,751$2,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,763.18450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+92.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed No0c9,565$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.51190%0 W · 19 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x798c…7bcabacked Yes2c9,247$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,105.162114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+266.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6da8…7e40backed Yes4c9,157$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,771.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+1,086.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc11e…75c8backed No0c9,010$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.02520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes6c8,998$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,498.143917.9%7 W · 32 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick13cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fac…8dc2backed Yes10c8,865$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,964.891942.1%8 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1eab…efd2backed Yes8c8,800$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,090.261723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f6c…36abbacked No0c8,580$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes3c8,500$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,230.4740433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes12c8,305$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,271.8420336.9%75 W · 128 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c1…0193backed Yes14c8,289$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,126.564953.1%26 W · 23 L+12.8wins+0.26per pick27cpaid+106%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes24c8,274$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,273.672030%6 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6732…d7f0backed Yes11c8,182$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,263.992450%12 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+447.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa64b…e68cbacked Yes16c7,749$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,524.17450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+211.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes31c7,500$2,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,137.9235355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x959c…8738backed No1c7,143$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d57…e0ffbacked Yes2c7,104$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,954.176028.3%17 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42ae…bd84backed Yes8c7,094$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,524.78450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+358.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes2c7,092$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,931.0615523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x901a…dc86backed No1c7,000$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes4c6,886$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,582.719736.1%35 W · 62 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f9…0007backed Yes39c6,834$2,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,163.123732.4%12 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes2c6,772$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,632.435623.2%13 W · 43 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+57.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes5c6,738$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,386.7821521.9%47 W · 168 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+29.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f7f…a34cbacked No0c6,640$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd5b…7ae7backed Yes6c6,545$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,145.25850%4 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+255.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cd4…0796backed Yes3c6,496$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,317.182020%4 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+148.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.