Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf9c7667226cd2edb84266b18fbaced1c19f6653d87343c5c98e3734097fcf70
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $463,964
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $309,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $463,964 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 1c | 31,430$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.72 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 3c | 19,725$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.55 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd358…8847backed Yes | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.63 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2962…8b90backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…2995backed Yes | 3c | 9,810$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.11 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…705ebacked Yes | 1c | 7,717$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,898$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.78 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 6,419$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.4 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 4,331$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 0c | 4,106$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 2c | 4,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 3,996$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf06…4799backed Yes | 2c | 3,977$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 3,968$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 1c | 3,757$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0c…7899backed Yes | 1c | 3,689$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…7ba1backed Yes | 0c | 3,342$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 3,269$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 2c | 3,198$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…be9bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,153$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.72 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…feddbacked Yes | 2c | 2,789$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 2c | 2,781$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72fa…5e4ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,741$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -92.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 2c | 2,737$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,697$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 2,675$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 2,599$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x978a…804fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes | 1c | 2,480$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,450$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 57 | 0%0 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed Yes | 2c | 2,435$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 1c | 2,365$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…ee11backed Yes | 4c | 2,327$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…d623backed Yes | 1c | 2,319$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,239$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7e…063fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,174$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,914$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes | 2c | 1,817$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.23 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 1c | 1,685$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 3c | 1,617$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,615$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60bb…d33fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,614$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,567$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…a86cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,466$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 1,420$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,259$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,244$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,210$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c7…cabebacked Yes | 2c | 1,187$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…dc8cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,133$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,025$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa852…e134backed Yes | 1c | 1,024$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…7d80backed Yes | 2c | 1,002$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 2c | 999.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…f2c6backed Yes | 2c | 986.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 944.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 3c | 839.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca2c…dff0backed Yes | 2c | 836.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…599ebacked Yes | 2c | 800.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c1…e407backed Yes | 2c | 764$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 7.3%3 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes | 2c | 734.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb5…4999backed Yes | 3c | 660.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 2c | 599.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…9fdabacked Yes | 2c | 590.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21a…ecdcbacked Yes | 4c | 533.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f9…9158backed Yes | 3c | 517.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 2.4%1 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb053…8210backed Yes | 4c | 514.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb63…79debacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4a…e1babacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…7f90backed Yes | 4c | 358.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe520…e4e3backed Yes | 3c | 351.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.