Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e43e09bbe6078e9e6144d8076314e596015846d27127ddaa9159b8a5d3043fc

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $501,897
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $421,344

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $501,897 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xccaa…705ebacked Yes	0c	52,312$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes	1c	51,941$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.72	44	0%0 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes	0c	31,552$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.59	432	12.5%54 W · 378 L	+11.0wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes	0c	12,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	94	14.9%14 W · 80 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+86.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0484…e0eebacked Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	108	38%41 W · 67 L	+11.5wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+62.7%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes	1c	10,000$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.92	86	7%6 W · 80 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b74…778cbacked Yes	1c	9,221$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	+3.5wins	+0.12per pick	12cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes	2c	9,150$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.57	38	7.9%3 W · 35 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes	1c	8,933$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.11	136	17.6%24 W · 112 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+58.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	8,562$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.55	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	1c	7,165$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	76	11.8%9 W · 67 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc714…4141backed Yes	2c	6,000$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.15	16	0%0 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes	1c	5,642$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.46	115	1.7%2 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	2cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc921…7dd6backed Yes	2c	5,045$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-89.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	171	11.7%20 W · 151 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	4,987$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.77	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…2995backed Yes	2c	4,982$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.19	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6826…f19dbacked Yes	2c	4,515$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	36	2.8%1 W · 35 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	10cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	1c	4,173$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	116	15.5%18 W · 98 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes	1c	4,008$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.68	147	7.5%11 W · 136 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	1c	3,967$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.24	155	23.2%36 W · 119 L	+12.1wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	3,811$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.28	247	6.9%17 W · 230 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes	1c	3,729$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.09	144	2.8%4 W · 140 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes	1c	3,505$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.8	255	18%46 W · 209 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes	2c	3,484$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.72	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes	1c	3,270$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.77	77	26%20 W · 57 L	+6.5wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	3,224$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.63	462	5%23 W · 439 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes	1c	3,004$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.37	64	7.8%5 W · 59 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…f440backed Yes	2c	3,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e2…be9bbacked Yes	1c	2,927$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.86	20	0%0 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	1c	2,826$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.12	199	5%10 W · 189 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e0c…7899backed Yes	2c	2,824$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x978a…804fbacked Yes	2c	2,669$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.62	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92f4…8f65backed Yes	4c	2,362$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	2,300$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	419	5.3%22 W · 397 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes	1c	2,288$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	135	18.5%25 W · 110 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc56…feddbacked Yes	2c	2,249$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes	1c	2,100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	57	0%0 W · 57 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes	1c	2,060$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+75.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee83…d382backed Yes	2c	2,025$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	31	0%0 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes	2c	2,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.59	96	5.2%5 W · 91 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9c9…224cbacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+5.7wins	+0.36per pick	21cpaid	+555.5%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	2c	1,805$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.76	413	6.8%28 W · 385 L	-13.6wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes	1c	1,770$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.28	72	0%0 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes	1c	1,614$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	51	5.9%3 W · 48 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,482$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.9	238	4.6%11 W · 227 L	-12.9wins	-0.05per pick	10cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c3b…a86cbacked Yes	2c	1,445$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.26	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,400$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	492	8.7%43 W · 449 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12f8…4e45backed Yes	1c	1,343$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9fbe…7ba1backed Yes	1c	1,341$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	53	9.4%5 W · 48 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-77.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1eaa…f662backed Yes	2c	1,321$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-88.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	1,225$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	170	3.5%6 W · 164 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes	1c	1,204$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.87	68	4.4%3 W · 65 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	7cpaid	-87.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b0…d2fdbacked Yes	4c	1,149$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.47	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0ba…e3dabacked Yes	2c	1,046$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b9e…54c8backed Yes	1c	1,010$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeff8…93f1backed Yes	2c	1,007$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe29e…f2c6backed Yes	2c	985.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+2.0wins	+0.20per pick	10cpaid	+56.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes	3c	846.87$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes	2c	779.86$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.72	291	29.9%87 W · 204 L	+21.5wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b4a…e1babacked Yes	2c	669.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-83.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x908c…f9bebacked Yes	2c	661.68$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c81…8865backed Yes	4c	635.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e75…7ee4backed Yes	2c	625$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes	4c	552.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	14.3%7 W · 42 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9c…f2bdbacked Yes	2c	514.11$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	+125.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event