TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,154,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$978,364

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,154,654 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes1c336,240$2,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,237.814214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes1c61,323$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.673810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83e0…53e6backed Yes1c28,944$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.378230.5%25 W · 57 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4f5…9663backed Yes2c24,317$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.38240%0 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed Yes1c24,204$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.3114039.3%55 W · 85 L+20.0wins+0.14per pick25cpaid+63.9%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xae8d…52f1backed Yes1c19,589$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001625%4 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-36%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c19,033$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.3317111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc998…7849backed Yes1c18,275$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c17,709$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.087611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes1c14,910$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.54867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes1c14,691$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.84440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c13,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c12,958$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.7122227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbcb0…f77dbacked Yes2c12,808$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.33414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c12,489$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.282913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4be9…1442backed Yes3c10,000$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.081323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+19.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe361…96cabacked Yes1c9,525$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c8,364$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.767135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes1c7,842$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.64387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes1c7,519$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.81120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1385…1cf9backed Yes0c6,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1360%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c5,991$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.251,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa40…8b4fbacked Yes0c5,736$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.75260%0 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.347610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c5,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4536227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07dd…2038backed Yes1c4,487$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.79287.1%2 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+200.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes1c4,469$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1211730.8%36 W · 81 L-5.1wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-21.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c4,383$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.724625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c4,290$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.041477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c4,123$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.581442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c4,098$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.162476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe67…3932backed Yes1c3,775$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5c2…cfb5backed Yes1c3,739$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.53372.7%1 W · 36 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb04…ff46backed Yes1c3,636$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40120%0 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes1c3,500$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.85965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd05a…f204backed Yes1c3,472$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-72%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,375$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.354195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c3,144$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.391151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes2c3,142$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.17382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c3,100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.13103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes1c3,000$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5b…c6b4backed Yes3c2,985$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003928.2%11 W · 28 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d51…6c59backed Yes1c2,642$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31254%1 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick4cpaid+76.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff3…7737backed Yes1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2234…8d2ebacked Yes1c2,340$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ff…6632backed Yes1c2,333$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213925.6%10 W · 29 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x90d1…f62abacked Yes1c2,291$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.86720%0 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9fd…b571backed Yes1c2,250$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick10cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes1c2,240$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0215523.2%36 W · 119 L+12.1wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+64.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes1c2,143$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17647.8%5 W · 59 L-0.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes1c2,100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.24684.4%3 W · 65 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes1c2,047$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.661995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes1c2,014$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.31515.9%3 W · 48 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes1c2,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127726%20 W · 57 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.425518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3739…307fbacked Yes1c1,974$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.64934.3%4 W · 89 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+75.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf964…6e97backed Yes1c1,818$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick12cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee83…d382backed Yes2c1,752$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27310%0 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31cd…47e5backed Yes1c1,735$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.951811.1%2 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf679…c98bbacked Yes1c1,703$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-69.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x07c9…4fa3backed Yes1c1,600$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7558…2d70backed Yes1c1,505$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.04128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick2cpaid+125.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes1c1,400$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14570%0 W · 57 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30cc…331abacked Yes1c1,391$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes1c1,384$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.372384.6%11 W · 227 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes2c1,290$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221040%4 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+41.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd57d…e30fbacked Yes1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes1c1,249$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6311615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…0cc1backed Yes1c1,171$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.541910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-86.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb45…1a6bbacked Yes1c1,120$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.081315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-79.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f67…de01backed Yes1c1,091$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1178…772fbacked Yes2c1,084$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick17cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes1c1,048$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5313617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes1c1,018$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.144136.8%28 W · 385 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6826…f19dbacked Yes2c1,018$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17362.8%1 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick10cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes1c999.89$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2726.9%5 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes1c994.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.64323.1%1 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick4cpaid+47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde87…11a2backed Yes1c971.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6511833.9%40 W · 78 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+29.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3334…a65dbacked Yes2c966.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8393…9fd6backed Yes2c906.03$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15180%0 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ac…43f7backed Yes1c869.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3b…4ce9backed Yes2c651.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1080%0 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bec…b445backed Yes2c629.38$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10214.8%1 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick25cpaid-86.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes2c615.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-84.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e52…f6d5backed Yes2c603.03$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick7cpaid-46.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.