TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,264,918
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,390,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,264,918 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe361…96cabacked Yes0c81,366$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300190%0 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3df…6f87backed Yes1c66,874$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.97311%8 W · 65 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67d0…db7abacked Yes1c61,163$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.4213617.6%24 W · 112 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+58.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6810…38a3backed Yes1c57,500$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.191428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick17cpaid-33.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0233…5dd0backed Yes1c54,021$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.65128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid-53.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes1c49,351$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.25440%0 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa819…8085backed Yes3c48,776$1,247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,247.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes1c47,454$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.087611.8%9 W · 67 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c42,442$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.0717111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes1c40,355$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.2422227%60 W · 162 L+17.8wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes1c37,461$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.3243212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes2c31,056$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.391128.9%10 W · 102 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick14cpaid+149.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2296…a048backed Yes2c30,951$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes3c29,348$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.176045%27 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+29.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90c6…19e1backed Yes2c28,060$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670666.7%4 W · 2 L+3.0wins+0.50per pick17cpaid+208.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c26,976$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.087135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec8f…94d5backed Yes4c24,294$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9171233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb2b…3e70backed Yes3c22,596$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.281118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x365f…3684backed Yes1c22,417$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.6630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270d…5ff2backed Yes3c22,326$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6256722.4%15 W · 52 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+76.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbaa…c6e3backed Yes0c22,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes2c19,966$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.2311615.5%18 W · 98 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-50%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes2c17,516$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.2325518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfcd8…5136backed Yes1c17,143$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.280%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9e…509cbacked Yes2c16,698$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.63230%0 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes1c16,362$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.5118929.1%55 W · 134 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf7e…b52dbacked Yes1c16,153$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.82616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick8cpaid-44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4261…c62fbacked Yes1c15,555$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.55911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick3cpaid+79.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes1c15,000$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.06867%6 W · 80 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-23.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes0c13,400$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.89414.9%14 W · 80 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+86.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31db…02cbbacked Yes2c12,352$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.28128.3%1 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid+189.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x030e…5652backed Yes2c12,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e3f…d953backed Yes2c11,886$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27960%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes2c11,877$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.18433.3%28 W · 56 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+75.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes2c11,703$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.925347.2%25 W · 28 L+10.5wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+27%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xdbe7…67eebacked Yes2c11,583$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.7390%0 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes2c11,233$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.139410.6%10 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bd0…93dcbacked Yes0c11,227$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.483810.5%4 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b4e…2ff5backed Yes2c11,222$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07dd…2038backed Yes1c10,989$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.95287.1%2 W · 26 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+200.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c10,340$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.041,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d5…1b17backed Yes1c10,034$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9387.9%3 W · 35 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e34…c876backed Yes2c10,017$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.074320.9%9 W · 34 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick17cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0dca…a372backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002030%6 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf59f…3be9backed Yes1c10,000$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7015743.9%69 W · 88 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes1c9,042$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.094625%23 W · 439 L+1.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes1c9,000$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5938247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x798c…7bcabacked Yes1c8,391$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.342114.3%3 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick5cpaid+266.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f67…de01backed Yes1c8,376$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.25310%0 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0527…20b1backed Yes1c8,163$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.811151.7%2 W · 113 L0.0wins0.00per pick2cpaid-78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aaa…51dfbacked Yes1c7,935$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.347938%30 W · 49 L+9.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+42.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdd1e…a11dbacked Yes1c7,708$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003225%8 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c22…e4dbbacked Yes1c7,433$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4825%2 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-18.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed44…1082backed Yes1c7,428$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.33611.6%1 W · 60 L-0.3wins0.00per pick2cpaid-76.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea7b…9c4dbacked Yes1c7,294$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653625%9 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+48.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9877…b493backed Yes3c6,605$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes2c6,358$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.611995%10 W · 189 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b8…efd8backed Yes1c6,189$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick27cpaid+27.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x05a9…1e0dbacked Yes2c6,093$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012733.3%9 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+321.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x55fd…5086backed Yes2c6,012$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.81224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid+37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc40b…3233backed Yes2c5,917$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e0…53e6backed Yes2c5,500$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.248230.5%25 W · 57 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f19…d209backed Yes2c5,352$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-76.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes1c5,260$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.737610.5%8 W · 68 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6df…c2a2backed Yes2c5,167$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9121…d73fbacked Yes4c5,141$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-53.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes1c5,035$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.182913.8%4 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick6cpaid+163.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdb…193dbacked Yes2c5,032$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.51010%1 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes1c5,023$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.683717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d9a…4841backed Yes3c5,010$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130156.7%1 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick7cpaid+33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes1c5,000$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43626.5%4 W · 58 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick9cpaid+10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba32…deaabacked Yes2c5,000$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.32382.6%1 W · 37 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes1c4,968$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.432476.9%17 W · 230 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes1c4,960$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6836227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes2c4,905$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9721926.5%58 W · 161 L+12.7wins+0.06per pick21cpaid+76.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55a0…8b02backed Yes2c4,828$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.222015%3 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick24cpaid-45.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb3a…deaabacked Yes1c4,501$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572630.8%8 W · 18 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick11cpaid+105.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes1c4,493$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.53965.2%5 W · 91 L-0.2wins0.00per pick5cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes2c4,473$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.679434%32 W · 62 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b2f…05efbacked Yes4c4,395$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155258%2 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ce…b599backed Yes2c4,361$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.374418.2%8 W · 36 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe537…1eebbacked Yes2c4,233$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.281631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick18cpaid+30.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a3b…3149backed Yes1c4,138$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.372814.3%4 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick7cpaid-60.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccaa…705ebacked Yes2c4,098$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100240%0 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78b3…b95abacked Yes2c4,000$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.63158.1%18 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c3,925$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.553103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes1c3,848$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.321442.8%4 W · 140 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-34.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08ea…d0a8backed Yes1c3,819$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc607…6b29backed Yes1c3,700$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.22615.4%4 W · 22 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-60.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x503a…e256backed Yes0c3,699$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10160%0 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6754…302bbacked Yes0c3,500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121612.5%2 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes1c3,485$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.865525.5%14 W · 41 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick19cpaid-33.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb32…0cc1backed Yes1c3,478$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.151910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-86.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbfb…6178backed Yes2c3,417$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.42714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick8cpaid-26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes3c3,405$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.9421831.2%68 W · 150 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-23.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes1c3,388$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.254195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes1c3,135$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.981477.5%11 W · 136 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3541…462ebacked Yes1c3,006$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.067732.5%25 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1865…9c7abacked Yes2c3,003$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.35825%2 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick12cpaid+250.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.