Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0930db235e4eb0cb69f426cafb2fab3c41b686315cf498661261a6da0b8b4050
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $576,956
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $505,103
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $576,956 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 2c | 60,737$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.08 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 1c | 37,043$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.27 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 2c | 13,237$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.2 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 2c | 12,507$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.07 | 243 | 8.2%20 W · 223 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 3c | 10,746$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.2 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 10,692$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…feddbacked Yes | 3c | 8,421$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 2c | 7,906$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1504…434ebacked Yes | 8c | 7,734$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 7,597$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.83 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 7,020$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.23 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes | 3c | 7,006$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…2078backed Yes | 1c | 6,888$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…705ebacked Yes | 1c | 6,786$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…f440backed Yes | 2c | 6,500$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 2c | 6,300$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.9 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7358…bf79backed Yes | 3c | 5,784$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…a456backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…8680backed Yes | 3c | 5,000$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.35 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d1…f62abacked Yes | 1c | 4,996$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 72 | 0%0 W · 72 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 3c | 4,813$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.21 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,614$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 4,463$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,439$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 4,250$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.55 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 2c | 4,022$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.49 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…65cfbacked Yes | 3c | 4,000$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +287.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 3,998$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.61 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcad8…1bf2backed Yes | 2c | 3,570$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…ddfcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,273$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Yes | 3c | 3,242$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 3,088$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…4141backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…e17bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,961$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…f4c6backed Yes | 3c | 2,897$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 4cpaid | +275.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,780$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 2,682$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -50%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 2,655$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bf…4bebbacked Yes | 4c | 2,561$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 31cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…a23abacked Yes | 3c | 2,377$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…5481backed Yes | 1c | 2,327$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…ee8abacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 3c | 2,197$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.31 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,953$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e31…a99ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,941$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 3c | 1,941$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.05 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 1,837$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…75d8backed Yes | 2c | 1,819$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 76 | 40.8%31 W · 45 L | +7.4wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae12…4271backed Yes | 4c | 1,776$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c5…50cdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,701$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…24ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,649$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +8.3wins | +0.10per pick | 14cpaid | +64%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0c…7899backed Yes | 2c | 1,561$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…1df6backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 1,483$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…974dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,357$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e27…3193backed Yes | 2c | 1,339$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…d382backed Yes | 2c | 1,182$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,168$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8611…d28fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,111$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c9…224cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,104$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +555.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 2c | 1,068$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,015$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…4ce9backed Yes | 1c | 1,013$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 1c | 1,004$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0dd2backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…be9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe29a…c56fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 13.3%8 W · 52 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ac…43f7backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…d63fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9b…62ccbacked Yes | 2c | 999.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 2c | 981.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953d…fe4fbacked Yes | 2c | 974.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…f342backed Yes | 2c | 939.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…f19dbacked Yes | 3c | 872.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29e…f2c6backed Yes | 2c | 869.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37a0…8423backed Yes | 2c | 859.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…9a89backed Yes | 2c | 833.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c3…00c8backed Yes | 2c | 828.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes | 2c | 820.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 2c | 734.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9724…fbc7backed Yes | 5c | 723.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.17 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…7ba1backed Yes | 2c | 707.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…6110backed Yes | 3c | 699.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…e12cbacked Yes | 3c | 648.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…1556backed Yes | 2c | 626.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…878abacked Yes | 3c | 617.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 541.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd384…bff6backed Yes | 3c | 537.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…1082backed Yes | 2c | 529.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…599ebacked Yes | 2c | 523.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c17…6a7ebacked Yes | 3c | 499.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 3c | 499.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 2c | 499.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52ea…db78backed Yes | 3c | 497.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -60%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…b496backed Yes | 3c | 474$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd738…89d9backed Yes | 3c | 446.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 6, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 1, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 10, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 2, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?Yes won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 3, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 4, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 5, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 7, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 8, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on February 9, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.