TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x95f5…4377

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Ukraine, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Ukraine at 52 out of 100; worst Tennis at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT2646.2%12 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.91
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$32.85
Will Hull City achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the English Premier League for the 2026-27 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$132.17
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$10.63
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+99.9%+$28.8
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+37%+$13.67
Will Nottm Forest be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.07
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.56
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+100%+$38.18
Spread: West Ham United FC (-1.5)backed West Ham United FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.25
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-04-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.81
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10.61
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)backed Manchester City FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$23
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+270.4%+$73
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25.9
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+75.4%+$59.34
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$19.99
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$26.18
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$25.04
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)backed Arsenal FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$19.99
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+79.5%+$11.13
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+38.9%+$5.57
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-02-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$25.2
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$114
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$44.52
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$20.35
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$39.77
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.02
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$88
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+25%+$12.5
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+95.3%+$143
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$35.62
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+106.6%+$90.58
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+289.4%+$289.41
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$134.85
US strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will the US next strike Iran in January 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10
US strikes Iran by February 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$30
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$45.17
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+85.2%+$65.59
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$128.05
All 22 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT1546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.92
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.15
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.66
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.67
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.95
Spread: France (-1.5)backed France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.28
Will England win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$10.83
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$25.45
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advancebacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.67
Will France win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$39.64
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$14.97
Spread: England (-1.5)backed England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$15.47
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-03-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick43cpaid-73.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+134.9%+$88.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$8.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.