Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Townsend (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x116abcb4c0d175efe5f37d4d573890a30a4f8d3de5ba5529a18b04129486954f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Townsendof Swiatek, Townsend
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Swiatek | 65c | 15,000$9,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,749.99 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Townsend | 35c | 10,832$3,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,040.86 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Swiatek | 65c | 4,410$2,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,852.76 | 348 | 57.2%199 W · 149 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Townsend | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Townsend | 35c | 1,175$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.07 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Townsend | 36c | 1,143$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$731.31 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Townsend | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Townsend | 40c | 997.56$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601.93 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Townsend | 35c | 600$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Townsend | 35c | 598.89$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.28 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Swiatek | 71c | 561.9$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Townsend | 35c | 514.29$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.29 | 391 | 35.8%140 W · 251 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Townsend | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Townsend | 43c | 323.89$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.89 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Townsend | 36c | 207.94$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.08 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Swiatek | 10c | 202$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Swiatek | 70c | 151.33$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.93 | 155 | 32.9%51 W · 104 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…0dacbacked Swiatek | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Townsend | 35c | 123.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Townsend | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 580 | 45.9%266 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Swiatek | 62c | 114.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Townsend | 38c | 98.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a6…a5cfbacked Swiatek | 21c | 90.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Townsend | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Townsend | 35c | 81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Townsend | 16c | 80.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Townsend | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Townsend | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 486 | 37.7%183 W · 303 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Townsend | 35c | 44.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…4377backed Swiatek | 65c | 43.74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Townsend (+1.5)this page
- Set 1 Winner: Townsend vs SwiatekSwiatek won
- Set 2 Winner: Townsend vs SwiatekTownsend won
- Wimbledon WTA: Taylor Townsend vs Iga SwiatekIga Swiatek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.