Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c1ca8f5007f4f9ae14ecfbf490d616501952ec828face21cd5896d123769f2d

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,185,718
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $851,855

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,185,718 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 853 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	63,867$6,741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,741.02	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	28c	34,695$9,711 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,710.9	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	23c	24,010$5,621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,621.12	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	16c	16,780$2,697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,697.45	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	15c	14,136$2,116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,115.67	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	20c	13,080$2,595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,594.55	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	18c	12,504$2,268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,267.99	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	23c	11,915$2,755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,754.97	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b49…178dbacked Yes	1c	11,643$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.44	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.31per pick	19cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	11,000$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	10,786$951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$950.59	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5331…69d8backed Yes	1c	10,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	61	41%25 W · 36 L	+3.6wins	+0.06per pick	35cpaid	+132.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	20c	9,869$1,988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,988.32	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	28c	9,840$2,772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,771.54	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	37c	9,805$3,630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,630.31	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	25c	9,634$2,364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,363.83	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	28c	8,966$2,536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,535.62	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	15c	8,577$1,327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,326.59	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	56c	7,946$4,451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,494.47	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c23…2ccdbacked Yes	33c	7,434$2,446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,445.68	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	19cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	45c	7,142$3,189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,189.5	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	25c	7,139$1,801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,801.16	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	18c	6,922$1,262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,262.19	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	26c	6,624$1,739 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,739.03	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98db…0c76backed Yes	24c	6,271$1,517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,517.06	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.28per pick	38cpaid	+73.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	24c	6,130$1,443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,443.34	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	15c	6,054$894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.63	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes	48c	5,860$2,840 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,840.08	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	11c	5,824$663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$663.04	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	23c	5,690$1,290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,289.9	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	15c	5,500$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$808.17	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	71c	5,050$3,585 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,465.51	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	29c	4,693$1,375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,374.82	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	4,597$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.75	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f6a…8ec7backed No	73c	4,392$3,223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,169.32	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	19c	4,376$832 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$831.92	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	18c	4,328$777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$776.79	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	4,219$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	43c	3,962$1,697 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,696.55	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c27…2132backed No	63c	3,740$2,341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,398.9	64	57.8%37 W · 27 L	+6.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	21c	3,728$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$783.28	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e5…e2f4backed Yes	43c	3,674$1,565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,565.48	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	10c	3,474$336 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.3	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	12c	3,444$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63c5…6f61backed Yes	18c	3,334$610 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$610	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes	6c	3,174$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…2a73backed Yes	36c	3,095$1,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,120.83	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-62%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x117f…e958backed Yes	28c	3,093$869 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$869	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6869…0484backed Yes	24c	3,039$727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.67	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked Yes	34c	3,035$1,039 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,039.21	65	32.3%21 W · 44 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No	78c	3,004$2,343 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$660.94	29	72.4%21 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	74cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	4c	3,000$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.9	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	71c	3,000$2,130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,130	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	24c	2,914$691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$690.5	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	18c	2,903$528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$528.14	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	28c	2,892$811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$811.47	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	19c	2,877$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.96	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes	7c	2,812$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.94	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48c5…89f3backed Yes	30c	2,707$819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.43	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd0f7…93c2backed Yes	58c	2,625$1,520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,520	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ed…8808backed Yes	50c	2,532$1,261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,261.36	79	36.7%29 W · 50 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes	16c	2,500$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.5	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	-3.2wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5190…6c17backed Yes	35c	2,495$884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$883.55	70	35.7%25 W · 45 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes	30c	2,411$714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$713.8	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa230…5f3fbacked Yes	13c	2,400$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.67	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	2,384$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.06	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	25c	2,312$588 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.63	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes	19c	2,269$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.2	67	17.9%12 W · 55 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+22%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	26c	2,195$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$577.78	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bf…3658backed Yes	23c	2,125$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.61	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	14c	2,120$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.17	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	23c	2,097$476 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.51	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	40c	2,011$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed No	75c	2,000$1,496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$503.97	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…3d35backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes	24c	2,000$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.2	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	21c	1,962$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.68	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x399d…c46ebacked Yes	5c	1,941$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	37c	1,914$701 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$701.05	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	15c	1,900$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	27c	1,870$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.36	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	16c	1,866$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.45	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	18c	1,846$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.04	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95d2…1ecabacked Yes	4c	1,800$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	4cpaid	+166.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9da8…4dd2backed Yes	2c	1,791$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	6cpaid	+452.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	21c	1,784$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.3	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f72…664abacked Yes	24c	1,779$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+2.6wins	+0.15per pick	26cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	77c	1,766$1,365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400.94	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No	76c	1,700$1,293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$406.59	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x783c…fd0dbacked Yes	47c	1,680$796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795.72	54	48.1%26 W · 28 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfef7…8367backed Yes	10c	1,617$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed No	77c	1,606$1,238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$368.12	89	38.2%34 W · 55 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40de…0e3abacked Yes	2c	1,604$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.25	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+2.0wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+76.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	9c	1,601$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.94	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	75c	1,589$1,192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.32	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	5c	1,548$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.78	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes	34c	1,507$508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.94	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x233d…6197backed Yes	3c	1,507$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdac3…03eebacked Yes	57c	1,501$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$861.63	18	77.8%14 W · 4 L	+4.2wins	+0.23per pick	55cpaid	+45%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	7c	1,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event