Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf932b7ba6072ddfaca26d3e3afec3a6d7efd7d778031fdacbfc9c27786c5577f

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $710,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $287,799

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $710,186 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	0c	55,555$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	40,223$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	16,309$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.62	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	14,320$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.71	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6914…3cbcbacked Yes	0c	13,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	16	0%0 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	13,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a9…9234backed Yes	0c	12,800$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.36	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	12,699$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	12,473$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes	0c	9,460$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa095…a5c4backed Yes	0c	9,300$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	9,278$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.56	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	0c	9,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	8,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	7,568$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.58	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05bf…5fa8backed Yes	0c	6,778$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	8c	6,138$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.24	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	6,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	5,550$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.4	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	5,314$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.12	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	4,333$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.67	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x028e…c523backed Yes	1c	4,259$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,019$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.21	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	3,656$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	1c	3,627$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.23	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	5c	3,608$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.59	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	4c	3,001$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.64	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	5c	2,989$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.41	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	5c	2,851$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.54	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	2,763$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.3	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9977…607bbacked Yes	11c	2,720$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,617$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	3c	2,450$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95d2…1ecabacked Yes	5c	2,450$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.05	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	4cpaid	+166.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	7c	2,440$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.89	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes	1c	2,437$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	2,402$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.22	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	2,273$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.28	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	9c	2,188$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.09	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	2,174$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.31	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	5c	2,108$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,086$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.37	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x687b…f8a7backed Yes	5c	2,066$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	7cpaid	+237.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	2,022$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.13	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9310…adf9backed Yes	4c	2,011$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.48	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-83.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7cd…f7c3backed Yes	5c	2,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.99	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44e6…b17dbacked Yes	11c	1,826$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.01	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	26cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	4c	1,734$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.31	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	6c	1,637$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	9c	1,500$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.98	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	9c	1,430$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.53	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	7c	1,400$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.85	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5947…8bdabacked Yes	4c	1,330$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.94	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	6c	1,266$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.45	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	1,220$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.84	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd00…e02fbacked Yes	3c	1,217$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.3	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	6c	1,205$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.57	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe935…778dbacked Yes	10c	1,200$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.81	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes	4c	1,197$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.47	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	9c	1,170$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.79	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	1,099$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.69	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	6c	1,062$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.7	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	8c	1,015$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.69	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	4c	1,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes	5c	1,000$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	1,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.56	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	11c	999.75$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.97	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c7…3976backed Yes	6c	977.59$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.07	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cc1…3e21backed Yes	2c	959.48$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.81	21	19%4 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	9cpaid	+77.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	946.68$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.03	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b27…7908backed Yes	7c	862.64$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.19	97	27.8%27 W · 70 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+67.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3b5…10eabacked Yes	6c	851.05$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f3…f151backed Yes	1c	824.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.36	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd789…08e7backed Yes	1c	783.8$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	773.01$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.38	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe995…1e98backed Yes	12c	763.24$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.98	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	5c	760.14$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.49	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6b…5263backed Yes	8c	756.71$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	6c	723.34$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.72	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	5c	710.77$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.81	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	3c	705.65$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.68	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	7c	685.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.71	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x777b…5931backed Yes	7c	674.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	2c	670$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed Yes	6c	662.08$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.98	116	24.1%28 W · 88 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	8c	642.07$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf544…4646backed Yes	8c	642$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.07	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes	8c	632.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	177	20.9%37 W · 140 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes	2c	626.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	334	15.6%52 W · 282 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked Yes	7c	618.06$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.71	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc66f…b7dabacked Yes	8c	616.8$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.62	65	12.3%8 W · 57 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+65.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bb…9107backed Yes	4c	607.94$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.15	110	14.5%16 W · 94 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-45.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	8c	600$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	4c	599.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2220…4471backed Yes	6c	594.08$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.1	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event