TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$810,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$346,975

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $810,910 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 244 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes0c40,188$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.37966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes2c25,815$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.511,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddd8…e6f7backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207216.7%12 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201772.3%4 W · 173 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+467.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes0c15,293$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes0c11,110$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.111690%0 W · 169 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102968.1%24 W · 272 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes8c9,889$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.421,03611.1%115 W · 921 L+4.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes1c9,686$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.6976821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c9,427$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.714568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes5c8,949$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.32,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c8,920$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.081,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes4c7,069$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.481,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c6,398$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.741,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes7c6,382$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.623408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes11c6,165$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.7870616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes5c5,946$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3045909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes3c5,786$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.7324815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes0c5,520$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.519219.6%18 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-47.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes5c5,435$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.8551410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes1c5,422$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.7414413.2%19 W · 125 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes5c5,185$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.2914411.1%16 W · 128 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes5c5,068$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.951128%9 W · 103 L-6.5wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-80%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2045511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes9c4,996$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.6621213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes0c4,792$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5925617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes0c4,713$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.142074.3%9 W · 198 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes2c4,299$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.064165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0dd…19eabacked Yes1c4,184$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407544%33 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes1c4,053$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.367818.7%68 W · 713 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes9c3,803$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.172317.4%17 W · 214 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c3,773$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.492,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a9…9234backed Yes1c3,695$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.96100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes14c3,365$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46017919%34 W · 145 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-34.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c23…2ccdbacked Yes12c3,275$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-85.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes1c3,135$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.431468.2%12 W · 134 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes4c3,000$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.275198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes5c2,900$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14641310.7%44 W · 369 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid+12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes10c2,868$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.54358.6%3 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes1c2,721$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.387216.7%12 W · 60 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes5c2,616$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.587304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes1c2,557$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5510414.4%15 W · 89 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-36.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes1c2,554$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2714233.8%48 W · 94 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes6c2,510$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.67815.4%12 W · 66 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+57.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8781…0d7abacked Yes13c2,088$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2801711.8%2 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-43.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes5c2,005$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003844.7%18 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001785.6%10 W · 168 L+0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804806.9%33 W · 447 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed Yes9c1,953$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.311624.1%28 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbd…5165backed Yes1c1,768$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.414017.5%7 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes6c1,717$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.073267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes9c1,700$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14810114.9%15 W · 86 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+47.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes7c1,700$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.831,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes2c1,695$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.229413.8%13 W · 81 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-63.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7fbb…9a56backed Yes1c1,572$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113016.7%5 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-36.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes2c1,500$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5885.7%5 W · 83 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1538811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes7c1,500$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111209.2%11 W · 109 L+0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes6c1,500$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96598.5%5 W · 54 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick10cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…873cbacked Yes1c1,488$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8550%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80b6…1284backed Yes10c1,442$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes4c1,419$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626814.7%10 W · 58 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x424a…55cfbacked Yes1c1,400$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.77258%2 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes4c1,367$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.494916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes8c1,363$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5727316.8%46 W · 227 L+0.6wins0.00per pick17cpaid-38.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes4c1,348$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5526314.8%39 W · 224 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes7c1,333$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9025944.4%115 W · 144 L+10.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+21%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9df6…556fbacked Yes1c1,288$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.535614.3%8 W · 48 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x542d…8999backed Yes1c1,280$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15277.4%2 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes8c1,274$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9368615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes9c1,222$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.9378111.3%88 W · 693 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x028e…c523backed Yes1c1,176$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes1c1,111$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.118719.5%17 W · 70 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-41.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes8c1,099$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.339222.8%21 W · 71 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick15cpaid+151.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes1c1,092$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.74290%0 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c1,052$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.3978811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2090…2246backed Yes8c1,008$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803010%3 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-53.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes3c1,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.973423.5%12 W · 330 L+1.4wins0.00per pick3cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes9c1,000$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.491948.8%17 W · 177 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-48.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20429.5%4 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+150.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15464.3%2 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-93.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8021215.1%32 W · 180 L+0.6wins0.00per pick15cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes6c1,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017310.4%18 W · 155 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick10cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes6c999.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6015246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes2c999.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x46d7…5487backed Yes1c941.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.961711.8%2 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-54.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb29…ea70backed Yes2c915.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.87506%3 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46ef…7ecbbacked Yes9c900$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.22810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfef7…8367backed Yes11c878$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005418.5%10 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e69…e777backed Yes1c856$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1890%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes11c851.63$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.919726.9%53 W · 144 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes7c850$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.55718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4573…c16bbacked Yes12c844$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004420.5%9 W · 35 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+65.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes7c838.74$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7559927%162 W · 437 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9310…adf9backed Yes5c811.08$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.65185.6%1 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick10cpaid-83.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Yes6c800$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48329.4%3 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391f…cf8dbacked Yes8c800$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644912.2%6 W · 43 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-54.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x838b…fef2backed Yes7c789.12$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.26825%2 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+59.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab0a…36b1backed Yes10c780$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.12317.4%4 W · 19 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.