Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26af80eb0530e14e0c60519b2ce0e29e5ada980699249c071668582170e48cec

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $733,035
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $300,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $733,035 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	46,385$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.87	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	30,000$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	22,042$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	17,776$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	13,093$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.09	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a9…9234backed Yes	0c	12,343$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.57	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6914…3cbcbacked Yes	0c	12,049$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	16	0%0 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	11,110$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.65	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	10,852$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	10,540$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$486.53	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,290$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.46	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	8,500$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.61	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	3c	8,010$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	7,295$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	6,741$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	6,384$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.97	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	6,055$564 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564.4	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	5,879$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.53	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	6c	5,545$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.33	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	5,400$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.24	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	5,043$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.5	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	5,042$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.6	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Yes	5c	5,000$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	4cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	7c	5,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.99	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	4,660$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.75	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	4,612$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.59	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	5c	4,467$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.04	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	4,152$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.83	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f4c…602ebacked Yes	0c	3,978$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-77.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x028e…c523backed Yes	1c	3,643$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes	0c	3,422$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.58	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	5c	3,001$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.36	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	7c	2,885$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.2	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	9c	2,735$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	2,703$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.83	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	6c	2,660$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.61	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	2,640$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.36	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	2,510$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	1c	2,450$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.85	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	5c	2,399$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.35	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	10c	2,133$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.31	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	14c	2,131$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4573…c16bbacked Yes	10c	2,102$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+65.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	2,005$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.94	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd34…17e5backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+2.8wins	+0.16per pick	34cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	4c	1,898$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	1,812$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.78	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	8c	1,800$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.85	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7cd…f7c3backed Yes	6c	1,800$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.99	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes	2c	1,700$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.22	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-32%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	7c	1,500$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6e2…c3cabacked Yes	7c	1,458$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.32	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5947…8bdabacked Yes	5c	1,450$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.62	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	6c	1,450$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes	4c	1,370$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.47	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	7c	1,200$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes	8c	1,184$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	4c	1,042$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	1,040$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.66	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91f5…ce27backed Yes	1c	984.33$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	10c	937.15$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe87…83d6backed Yes	11c	918.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9310…adf9backed Yes	5c	910.83$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-83.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	8c	848.02$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.86	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	819.74$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.76	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xab0a…36b1backed Yes	9c	780$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.1	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	754.5$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.92	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd65e…814ebacked Yes	3c	750$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes	11c	747.77$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.25	67	17.9%12 W · 55 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+22%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	741.12$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.83	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	729.87$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.87	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c7…3976backed Yes	8c	726.71$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.37	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+49.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b27…7908backed Yes	7c	700$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	97	27.8%27 W · 70 L	+3.8wins	+0.04per pick	24cpaid	+67.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes	6c	693.17$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.85	91	16.5%15 W · 76 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	691.82$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.81	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ff0…e928backed Yes	2c	681.42$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.04	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	4c	650$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.65	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	8c	639.57$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.37	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	5c	629.28$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.65	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes	2c	625$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	16cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	8c	625$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes	10c	580$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.3	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	7c	571.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44e6…b17dbacked Yes	12c	569.55$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.35	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	26cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	177	20.9%37 W · 140 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf40c…7d39backed Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+25.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes	8c	554.21$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.87	197	26.9%53 W · 144 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	5c	552.74$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	8c	518.53$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.36	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	12c	515.68$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event