Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf98706ba6ea545176d4d826296120fd8a0ab3656062565ff353b7544f680b88d

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $799,856
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $412,016

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $799,856 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 309 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	38,704$1,464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,464.08	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	36,592$455 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$454.67	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3202…6a46backed Yes	0c	29,995$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16e…4802backed Yes	2c	20,404$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510.03	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	13,079$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.01	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	9,743$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.44	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ff0…c634backed Yes	1c	9,392$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-85.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	9,040$638 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638.06	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	10c	7,724$798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$798.03	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	3c	7,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	8c	6,727$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.87	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	8c	6,065$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.3	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	11c	6,000$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.99	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	1c	5,690$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.83	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	5c	5,562$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.33	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Yes	0c	5,521$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfef7…8367backed Yes	12c	5,469$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655.46	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	5,023$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.54	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	5,021$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.12	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	7c	4,969$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.37	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	4,891$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.01	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	4,500$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.81	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	4,408$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.67	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00b5…a03abacked Yes	1c	4,333$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.88	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c96…1959backed Yes	5c	4,200$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.2	52	28.8%15 W · 37 L	+3.1wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	4,100$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.98	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	4,050$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.45	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Yes	10c	4,000$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.99	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	4cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	3c	3,869$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.1	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	3,701$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.81	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	3,686$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	3,544$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.64	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	8c	3,474$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	3c	3,199$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.06	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x03c3…6050backed Yes	2c	3,114$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	3c	3,030$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.03	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	0c	3,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	2,994$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.04	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	9c	2,918$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.24	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	8c	2,708$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.01	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf22f…7714backed Yes	10c	2,659$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.54	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+79.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	7c	2,632$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.6	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	6c	2,578$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.92	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,518$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.56	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	2,500$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.5	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	2,474$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.87	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	4c	2,419$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.52	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	9c	2,275$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.39	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	1c	2,264$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.51	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd596…76ebbacked Yes	1c	2,238$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.94	31	3.2%1 W · 30 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	2c	2,137$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.67	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	12c	2,122$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.23	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	3c	2,116$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	1c	1,996$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.95	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46d7…5487backed Yes	2c	1,992$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.56	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x63c5…6f61backed Yes	12c	1,968$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	1,904$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.87	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…873cbacked Yes	3c	1,901$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.86	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	9c	1,892$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.83	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	2c	1,884$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.67	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	6c	1,838$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.27	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	15c	1,814$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.11	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	1,805$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.7	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	2c	1,732$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.51	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4573…c16bbacked Yes	13c	1,724$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	+65.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	1c	1,701$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f14…905dbacked Yes	13c	1,623$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+64%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes	3c	1,622$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-41%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	1c	1,609$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	8c	1,600$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.49	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	7c	1,599$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.92	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,550$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	1,541$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.06	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	1,527$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	7c	1,501$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.39	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	1,500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	6c	1,500$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	7c	1,500$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	1c	1,486$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe87…83d6backed Yes	9c	1,486$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbd…4bd9backed Yes	14c	1,447$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	11c	1,400$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcbd…5165backed Yes	4c	1,370$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.7	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-20%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	5c	1,341$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2220…4471backed Yes	14c	1,287$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.48	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	9c	1,270$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.97	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46ef…7ecbbacked Yes	13c	1,202$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.73	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2090…2246backed Yes	11c	1,170$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.69	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a9…9234backed Yes	3c	1,149$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.86	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	12c	1,132$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.45	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a80…729cbacked Yes	2c	1,131$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.22	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	+38%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	10c	1,125$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.12	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	1c	1,111$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes	12c	1,088$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.91	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	4c	1,030$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.42	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	10c	1,000$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.65	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event