Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84fadfc6de06a001d86dd890fcfe031ae3e9eed3f29e04761bf1014191ca53ac

Rebuilt 21 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 17, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $548,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $166,542

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $548,928 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	0c	55,555$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	31,249$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	28,886$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.89	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2a9…9234backed Yes	0c	19,615$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes	0c	18,367$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.1	138	9.4%13 W · 125 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	5c	13,580$742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$742.48	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Yes	3c	10,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	4cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	9,136$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	7,339$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.67	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	6,493$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.04	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	2c	5,555$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.44	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	5,540$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.67	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	5,209$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.12	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	3c	4,628$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.59	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,570$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc0…a438backed Yes	0c	3,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	24	0%0 W · 24 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	3,497$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	3,442$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.97	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x028e…c523backed Yes	0c	3,399$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.41	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	3,254$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.09	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	3,227$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c35…feebbacked Yes	0c	3,100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	29	0%0 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes	6c	3,045$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.78	112	8%9 W · 103 L	-6.5wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-80%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	2c	3,019$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.55	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	3c	2,891$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.36	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b7…8cb8backed Yes	2c	2,500$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	2,419$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.04	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,236$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.77	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,111$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.22	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	2,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa44a…5d2dbacked Yes	7c	1,963$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.22	35	8.6%3 W · 32 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-55.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,861$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.96	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	3c	1,659$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.65	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	1,650$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.14	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x117f…4a20backed Yes	6c	1,615$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	68	8.8%6 W · 62 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+70.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	8c	1,577$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.77	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	1,500$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.82	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	8c	1,440$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.7	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe935…778dbacked Yes	11c	1,300$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.46	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	1,256$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.77	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes	1c	1,250$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	16cpaid	-93.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	1,200$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.5	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,174$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.19	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes	9c	1,126$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.74	67	17.9%12 W · 55 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+22%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67f…e81cbacked Yes	9c	1,060$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	1,030$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.67	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc281…af82backed Yes	10c	1,001$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	5c	1,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.81	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes	3c	1,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	999.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	3c	999.98$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.73	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	4c	999.97$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	939.49$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	3c	906.41$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.97	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	2c	875.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes	3c	822.37$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	4c	809.97$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.78	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3b5…10eabacked Yes	4c	791.33$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xed26…6282backed Yes	6c	790.31$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.84	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	1c	769.09$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd85d…e660backed Yes	10c	766.29$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.14	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27db…288dbacked Yes	7c	749.12$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb928…db56backed Yes	8c	742.5$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.88	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5afb…d66dbacked Yes	6c	701.01$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f3…421ebacked Yes	3c	700$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+138.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	673.73$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.48	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	2c	667.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7257…fc40backed Yes	6c	619.78$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.67	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes	8c	616.95$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	177	20.9%37 W · 140 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	5c	589.41$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.05	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0aa…6096backed Yes	7c	563.76$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a30…37a6backed Yes	8c	538.43$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2185…99abbacked Yes	4c	523.14$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	-2.8wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95bb…288dbacked Yes	8c	520.88$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fe4…e62abacked Yes	10c	516.83$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.44	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b4e…d839backed Yes	5c	507.54$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.72	85	5.9%5 W · 80 L	-3.1wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0056…7d9abacked Yes	3c	500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	240	22.9%55 W · 185 L	-14.2wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	4c	500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes	10c	499.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	3c	499.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	4c	499.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	10c	497.11$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfbd…9e29backed Yes	7c	494.12$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.12	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+88.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked Yes	6c	492.07$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x414e…3ffdbacked Yes	8c	481.79$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	4c	470.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Yes	6c	463.52$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe15a…9854backed Yes	6c	451.61$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	59	23.7%14 W · 45 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	6c	448.91$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.64	503	19.5%98 W · 405 L	-13.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f48…f8c8backed Yes	4c	446.58$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes	9c	430.1$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2080…6d80backed Yes	9c	427.88$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.63	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41a1…ac8ebacked Yes	9c	426.55$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event