AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa251d78116c60aceb3e6f4b271088ad2e612ad28638c00712d03e096899ceb0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,449
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,449 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked No | 0c | 15,328$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b6…cc7bbacked No | 1c | 4,910$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 3,912$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 66c | 2,337$1,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…0ca4backed No | 7c | 794.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 33c | 700.51$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eef…d34ebacked No | 8c | 669.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3432…86bbbacked No | 31c | 648.7$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 5c | 499.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72e5…6412backed No | 32c | 357.94$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0096…de43backed No | 32c | 237.5$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed Yes | 66c | 199.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 68c | 186.29$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.15 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed No | 30c | 164$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.76 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 33c | 153.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4241…4da7backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc927…9866backed No | 45c | 89.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x573f…65c1backed No | 40c | 87.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac7b…620fbacked No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 60c | 57.88$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd2…9c2cbacked No | 33c | 56.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…c757backed No | 40c | 50.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36db…b18abacked No | 31c | 46.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 59c | 33.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked No | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd272…dc72backed No | 34c | 32.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed No | 52c | 20.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dca…ab5abacked Yes | 73c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…e991backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8386…c2f2backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 22?this page
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 19?No won
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?No won
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.