AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5536299c825676ffe6d6c5cc68fc0a40f18f3fcd0d92b9a38f7e5fba062ad30b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,059 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked No | 2c | 7,888$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 2c | 5,500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 55 | 10.9%6 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bf…bc10backed Yes | 50c | 3,753$1,892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.78 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3432…86bbbacked No | 62c | 2,261$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed Yes | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.98 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a2…5c58backed No | 50c | 1,989$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dee…f426backed No | 5c | 1,349$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 65c | 1,163$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 53c | 1,089$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.2 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc447…54f5backed No | 24c | 864.66$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22b…aa3fbacked No | 5c | 856.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb593…28eabacked No | 35c | 675$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.25 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 50c | 588.43$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked No | 35c | 518$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.3 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 52c | 514.04$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.67 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 50c | 326.77$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6944…3902backed No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d02…6255backed No | 56c | 224$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 38c | 220$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8db…bbddbacked No | 35c | 197.3$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 46c | 180.04$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.31 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed No | 60c | 170.53$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 11c | 167.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afd…1241backed No | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab8…e3d1backed No | 33c | 143$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…c029backed Yes | 49c | 141$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47c4…bab9backed No | 58c | 120.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 109.01$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42cf…2678backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf808…6e99backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade6…60b5backed No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 53c | 97.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…6a12backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8da6…c757backed No | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 64c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…01ddbacked Yes | 39c | 79.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…76f6backed No | 57c | 69.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc927…9866backed No | 60c | 66.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x055c…369abacked No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…79b9backed Yes | 67c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54c5…b259backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 137 | 38%52 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Yes | 45c | 54.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +120%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 40c | 52.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3470…15f7backed Yes | 42c | 51.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…050abacked No | 45c | 51.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…562cbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…0dfabacked No | 62c | 49.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2264…3c0fbacked No | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb3…d024backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 44.77$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | -16.1wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…fdecbacked Yes | 39c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf295…881ebacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 34.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46de…5b2dbacked Yes | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed Yes | 58c | 32.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c6d…9617backed Yes | 43c | 31.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…ba85backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…61fdbacked Yes | 53c | 29.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…ee94backed Yes | 67c | 28.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 45c | 27.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2f…ac1cbacked No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…1456backed Yes | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f55…880bbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +153.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 65c | 22.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked No | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…df40backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84b…95b1backed No | 52c | 20.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8386…c2f2backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…18c8backed Yes | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172f…b136backed Yes | 69c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 21?this page
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 19?No won
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 20?No won
- Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.