Premier League · resolved market
Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16a57ed19d3e2b64c33f8326a9818100d6b3be7ece645f14b8151c65ee326b92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,059
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,059 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3cd…9a2ebacked Over | 1c | 4,440$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 4,388$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.89 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…6db9backed Under | 73c | 2,058$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 22c | 2,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 1,988$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.59 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab1…b4ecbacked Under | 66c | 1,521$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 33c | 1,515$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 19c | 1,474$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.08 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 34c | 1,148$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.25 | 226 | 44.2%100 W · 126 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…60e4backed Over | 36c | 777.92$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Under | 79c | 703.98$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.73 | 47 | 68.1%32 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…e5aabacked Over | 22c | 454.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 29c | 299.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.77 | 120 | 20.8%25 W · 95 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 73c | 299.25$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.09 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 22c | 172.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5354…2785backed Under | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac7e…4768backed Over | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbc…3122backed Under | 70c | 142.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.93 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe0c…c0cdbacked Over | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f2…2cb0backed Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 17c | 103.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 1,007 | 51.5%519 W · 488 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 14c | 96.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…b336backed Under | 77c | 76.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…84c5backed Under | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 65cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd96…11ebbacked Under | 77c | 44.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e30…02a0backed Under | 78c | 23.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e80…6910backed Under | 72c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2f…4520backed Under | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Aston Villa FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Tottenham Hotspur FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Tottenham Hotspur FC won
- Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.