Champions League · resolved market
Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the round of 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc382421abb451eaff34cc469655d17a6e8266ab73b5863a08c9c36e16c03322a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $91,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $91,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3328…e6b8backed No | 6c | 9,752$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…6db9backed No | 5c | 5,183$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…def1backed No | 12c | 4,300$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 5c | 3,449$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.13 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 6c | 2,586$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.39 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 5c | 2,046$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed No | 3c | 1,906$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a1…2425backed No | 8c | 1,752$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.37 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 15c | 1,181$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd894…0d19backed No | 11c | 1,108$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 12c | 1,102$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.91 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…f8c8backed No | 4c | 1,059$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked No | 13c | 1,037$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.9 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…1dd8backed No | 6c | 981.75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 11c | 895$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 6c | 803.58$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa1…eb3abacked No | 11c | 777$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…f285backed No | 14c | 755$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked No | 13c | 708$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa1…827bbacked No | 14c | 700$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +25%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2d…caf4backed No | 16c | 685$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 12c | 630$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…6beabacked No | 15c | 533$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +181.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 11c | 508$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf100…2fcabacked No | 13c | 488$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…4128backed No | 4c | 439.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6177…c22abacked No | 15c | 432$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…0959backed No | 11c | 429$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…8191backed No | 11c | 415$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed No | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…2479backed No | 16c | 399$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked No | 11c | 395$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…72e7backed No | 13c | 394.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8669…7111backed No | 11c | 391$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e0…a63bbacked No | 16c | 385$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe429…ef44backed No | 4c | 369.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…3e56backed No | 11c | 358.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de5…d01cbacked No | 15c | 357$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…dae1backed No | 16c | 332$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed No | 14c | 325$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed No | 9c | 295.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbe…6e52backed No | 6c | 294.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd8…757abacked No | 11c | 281$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ed…28e1backed No | 13c | 276$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed No | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed No | 5c | 248$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed No | 16c | 244$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked No | 14c | 240$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed No | 11c | 237$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…7f4fbacked No | 13c | 233$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47eb…8195backed No | 13c | 233$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7044…2eb6backed No | 9c | 221.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab21…4b87backed No | 11c | 209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ab…d0a0backed No | 11c | 209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af0…dd99backed No | 10c | 204.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc677…43f7backed No | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d74…3b80backed No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +164%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…7cf5backed No | 8c | 191.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…d24dbacked No | 12c | 185.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…1cc6backed No | 6c | 169.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8de2…8483backed No | 11c | 162.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 155.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 220 | 16.4%36 W · 184 L | -40.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked No | 15c | 145$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…a2debacked No | 11c | 136$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked No | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 11c | 118$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed No | 12c | 117$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa098…81e4backed No | 14c | 109$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08f9…9baabacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03a3…fdf4backed No | 13c | 96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…8c45backed Yes | 76c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f33…81f6backed No | 15c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed No | 14c | 74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a07…44dbbacked No | 23c | 44.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…d2b5backed No | 33c | 42.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 35 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain advance to the round of 16?this page
- Will Ajax advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Arsenal advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Atalanta advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Athletic Bilbao advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Atlético Madrid advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Barcelona advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Bayer Leverkusen advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Bayern Munich advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Benfica advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Bodø/Glimt advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Borussia Dortmund advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Chelsea advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Club Brugge advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Copenhagen advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Galatasaray advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Inter Milan advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Juventus advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Kairat advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Liverpool advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Manchester City advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Marseille advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Monaco advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Napoli advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Newcastle United advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Olympiacos advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will PSV Eindhoven advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Pafos advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Qarabağ advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Real Madrid advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Slavia Prague advance to the round of 16?No won
- Will Sporting CP advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Tottenham Hotspur advance to the round of 16?Yes won
- Will Union Saint-Gilloise advance to the round of 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.