TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hull City AFCof Manchester United FC, Hull City AFC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$359,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$359,137

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $359,919 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 282 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0a39…b0b9backed Manchester United FC48c94,218$45,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,196.671050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc099…4a37backed Manchester United FC49c85,620$42,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,173.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Manchester United FC50c42,133$20,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,996.1313742.3%58 W · 79 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…c80cbacked Hull City AFC50c39,026$19,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,512.872441.7%10 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Hull City AFC52c32,279$16,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,458.695332.5%310 W · 643 L-8.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Hull City AFC52c29,125$15,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,896.786,04745.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L-21.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Hull City AFC50c23,431$11,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,705.872060%12 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5901…63a2backed Manchester United FC50c22,444$11,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,222.21241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Hull City AFC50c15,000$7,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,469.9813348.9%65 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hull City AFC51c13,714$7,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,651.651,17950%590 W · 589 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56ac…d77ebacked Hull City AFC52c11,115$5,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,335.387635.5%27 W · 49 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa18c…d792backed Hull City AFC51c10,282$5,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,032.851250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6bf…8380backed Hull City AFC51c10,000$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,900580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+75.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Hull City AFC51c8,201$4,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,996.0981234.7%282 W · 530 L-24.2wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Hull City AFC51c8,116$4,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,950.822,53047.7%1,206 W · 1,324 L+43.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf377…4159backed Manchester United FC49c8,000$3,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,92010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Hull City AFC50c7,920$3,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,920.7815740.1%63 W · 94 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Hull City AFC52c7,735$4,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,712.6645249.6%224 W · 228 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Hull City AFC51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9403151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Hull City AFC52c5,950$3,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,855.997436.5%27 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…00c9backed Hull City AFC51c5,500$2,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,689.991764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.2wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+22.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Manchester United FC49c5,251$2,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,575.821440.7%87 W · 127 L+1.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2b2…bb8abacked Hull City AFC51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,450450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Hull City AFC51c4,074$2,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,002.8555351.9%287 W · 266 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4362…9e47backed Manchester United FC50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+109.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d67…6b86backed Hull City AFC53c3,780$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,780.011090%9 W · 1 L+3.2wins+0.32per pick58cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x78e3…2bcabacked Manchester United FC47c3,726$1,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.162920.7%6 W · 23 L-5.2wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-47%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Hull City AFC50c3,606$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,802.9914652.1%76 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Manchester United FC50c3,531$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,75017634.1%60 W · 116 L-13.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x712e…0485backed Hull City AFC50c3,500$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,750944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Hull City AFC51c3,210$1,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,569.669735.1%34 W · 63 L-9.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x47c7…cac7backed Hull City AFC51c3,136$1,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.647361.6%45 W · 28 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x64c4…1018backed Hull City AFC52c3,000$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4302075%15 W · 5 L+3.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+40.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Manchester United FC49c2,992$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,466.0153240%213 W · 319 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+3.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2918…fe4abacked Manchester United FC48c2,800$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3441963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Manchester United FC47c2,400$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,128.234533.3%15 W · 30 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32be…6da7backed Hull City AFC52c2,375$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,140.011241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Hull City AFC52c2,254$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0921,07445%483 W · 591 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc56…8f28backed Hull City AFC52c2,115$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.381471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8089…f935backed Hull City AFC50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,000666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick32cpaid+97.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Hull City AFC50c1,776$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8881827.8%5 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-22.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Manchester United FC18c1,711$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.024,69641.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L+21.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Hull City AFC56c1,697$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.275752.6%30 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Manchester United FC49c1,682$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.134847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x911b…344fbacked Manchester United FC50c1,512$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-46.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7cc6…9c5cbacked Hull City AFC51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7352100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+111.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Hull City AFC51c1,373$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.7723258.2%135 W · 97 L+13.9wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Hull City AFC50c1,216$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60814158.2%82 W · 59 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Manchester United FC44c1,165$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.4457847.8%276 W · 302 L+18.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Hull City AFC52c1,119$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.61,20842.2%510 W · 698 L-27.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafee…881ebacked Manchester United FC50c1,106$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.89425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Hull City AFC52c1,102$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.3775542.3%319 W · 436 L+1.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d85…2fc6backed Manchester United FC47c1,067$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd78d…81e0backed Manchester United FC5c1,060$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538537.6%32 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb72…291fbacked Hull City AFC51c1,048$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.52875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Hull City AFC51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49080853.6%433 W · 375 L+11.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Manchester United FC47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47016237.7%61 W · 101 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Hull City AFC51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49045936.2%166 W · 293 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65b5…aa71backed Hull City AFC52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4805757.9%33 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Manchester United FC15c999.99$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3bd…6dddbacked Hull City AFC51c999.98$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.993100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf055…02b5backed Hull City AFC51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.391457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf851…ef53backed Manchester United FC49c971.71$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.14633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid+9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa492…adbebacked Manchester United FC50c966.98$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.499131.9%29 W · 62 L-8.3wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-34.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Hull City AFC52c962$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.7621056.7%119 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d60…453dbacked Hull City AFC52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.5414949%73 W · 76 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0af1…1901backed Hull City AFC52c960$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.86100%6 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+71.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd10…2c4dbacked Manchester United FC50c870.32$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed Hull City AFC51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3927959.5%47 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+22.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Hull City AFC53c780.69$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.451,61534.9%564 W · 1,051 L-28.7wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1914…36f9backed Manchester United FC5c660$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371e…0f81backed Manchester United FC49c636.73$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3123956.4%22 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde80…d8b9backed Manchester United FC49c616.33$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68cc…d976backed Manchester United FC49c612.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3008259.8%49 W · 33 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad0b…a514backed Manchester United FC49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2941540%6 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Hull City AFC53c555.76$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.213145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2afc…317abacked Manchester United FC19c500$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bb2…97edbacked Manchester United FC49c493.92$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a55…a82abacked Hull City AFC53c441.61$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.12626.9%7 W · 19 L-7.0wins-0.27per pick54cpaid-54.5%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xddf1…a604backed Hull City AFC69c435.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.571643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-31.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd423…99e9backed Manchester United FC48c417.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Hull City AFC58c416.4$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.7727356.4%154 W · 119 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0137…b186backed Manchester United FC49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34c…2e29backed Manchester United FC49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001030%3 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c1…6b32backed Manchester United FC49c404.08$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004959.2%29 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe11…18cfbacked Hull City AFC51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19617959.8%107 W · 72 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Manchester United FC48c400$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19214355.9%80 W · 63 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Hull City AFC51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19618156.4%102 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Hull City AFC51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19614354.5%78 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e1…f420backed Hull City AFC50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Hull City AFC51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19616858.3%98 W · 70 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Hull City AFC51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19617062.4%106 W · 64 L+13.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed Hull City AFC51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19614459%85 W · 59 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8969…2a77backed Manchester United FC50c389.08$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.54450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf5…e71cbacked Hull City AFC53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.362962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Manchester United FC49c369.76$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.1819239.1%75 W · 117 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Hull City AFC52c359$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.3296443.7%421 W · 543 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4c…4b79backed Manchester United FC49c351.02$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Manchester United FC49c346.94$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17010847.2%51 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd404…b4ebbacked Hull City AFC51c326.18$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.832133.3%7 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.