TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Hull City AFC vs. Manchester United FC: Manchester United FC O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,647

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,392 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc291…5d74backed Under15c2,243$334 inWon+$1,908.291,66234.9%580 W · 1,082 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ac…1ce0backed Over80c1,250$1,000 inLost-$1,000771.4%5 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick71cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Under24c665.7$158 inWon+$507.221,01233.2%336 W · 676 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under28c540.07$153 inWon+$387.426,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Over60c411$247 inLost-$246.622644.2%100 W · 126 L+12.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Over75c300$225 inLost-$2259157.1%52 W · 39 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under11c211.61$23 inWon+$188.2611217.9%20 W · 92 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Over60c209.01$124 inLost-$124.4314144%62 W · 79 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Under11c145.27$17 inWon+$128.5912048.3%58 W · 62 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked Over80c106.25$85 inLost-$859067.8%61 W · 29 L+0.4wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce74…e6ecbacked Over58c51.72$30 inLost-$30450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under42c51.72$22 inWon+$304,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…b2cebacked Under43c46.55$20 inWon+$26.53785.7%6 W · 1 L+3.3wins+0.47per pick39cpaid+120.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe8db…7c68backed Over57c46.55$27 inLost-$26.53850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2962…3bb5backed Over70c42.86$30 inLost-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x571a…177abacked Over80c36.78$29 inLost-$29.42560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over60c20$12 inLost-$1296645.4%439 W · 527 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffe2…768dbacked Over60c20$12 inLost-$121060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ff…66d0backed Over80c12.5$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.