TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Hull City AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 0.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$271,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$391,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $271,481 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under5c101,894$5,095 inLost-$5,094.646,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc482…b505backed Under4c7,518$301 inLost-$300.77342.5%31 W · 42 L-7.9wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-12.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under6c6,173$353 inLost-$353.081,66234.9%580 W · 1,082 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under4c5,077$203 inLost-$203.0796443.7%421 W · 543 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under4c3,449$138 inLost-$137.951,07445%483 W · 591 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under5c3,341$183 inLost-$182.744,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under6c3,219$182 inLost-$182.0576842.6%327 W · 441 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04cf…9f77backed Under5c2,452$123 inLost-$122.591353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61d4…3593backed Under5c2,012$100 inLost-$100.461414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5952…db2fbacked Under5c2,001$100 inLost-$1002817.9%5 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under5c1,959$105 inLost-$105.4972142.7%308 W · 413 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Under4c528.94$21 inLost-$21.1613633.8%46 W · 90 L-9.9wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Under5c502.75$26 inLost-$25.645058%29 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Under6c290.77$19 inLost-$18.6122057.7%127 W · 93 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Under6c211.98$12 inLost-$11.7711217.9%20 W · 92 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9028…8608backed Under6c181$11 inLost-$10.859660.4%58 W · 38 L+7.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.