Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-03-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23a7ca5803c5f808d9a59c26728bd833c8e0e6dada3cb6e70eac1efee670889b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $431,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $453,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd29…77aebacked Yes | 57c | 188,269$108,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108,134.82 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 43c | 136,701$58,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77,885.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Yes | 57c | 115,222$65,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,441.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e0…024ebacked No | 44c | 51,852$22,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,036.99 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…a864backed No | 43c | 46,522$20,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,370.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…276fbacked No | 42c | 43,500$18,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,230.01 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 57c | 14,269$8,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,140.8 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56d…2b65backed No | 42c | 12,726$5,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,381.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 12,219$6,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,856.7 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 42c | 7,600$3,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,408 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 21c | 6,591$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.7 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 42c | 3,071$1,290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.42 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd243…56e5backed Yes | 18c | 3,000$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9895…ea0dbacked Yes | 57c | 2,350$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,339.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,007$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.22 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 42c | 1,836$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.68 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 42c | 1,748$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.05 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed No | 42c | 1,730$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 21c | 1,130$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.47 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa579…99edbacked Yes | 37c | 1,081$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb546…802cbacked No | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 9c | 991$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.01 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 42c | 832$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$482.56 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed No | 44c | 795.45$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.45 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 59c | 745.74$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.98 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 47c | 615.39$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.16 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…f17bbacked No | 77c | 484.22$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.37 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 42c | 431$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.98 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…2928backed Yes | 12c | 408.33$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 57c | 294.72$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.99 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 57c | 250$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3045…8f78backed No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 175 | 49.1%86 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 42c | 207.54$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.37 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked Yes | 58c | 169.49$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed No | 43c | 169.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.48 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Yes | 19c | 158.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 57c | 149.46$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.7 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed No | 42c | 147.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.75 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked No | 44c | 140$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…8b54backed Yes | 58c | 120$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked No | 42c | 117.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed No | 42c | 91.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae72…7437backed Yes | 57c | 87.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 42c | 83.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 42c | 81.85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370c…3eb1backed Yes | 57c | 78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…e920backed Yes | 57c | 77.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Yes | 57c | 73.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 41c | 73.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Yes | 58c | 68.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked No | 42c | 61.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 59c | 61.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 25c | 59.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa886…822bbacked Yes | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked Yes | 58c | 53.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3de…fe0ebacked Yes | 56c | 53.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 48c | 50.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5699…418dbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d7…7c97backed Yes | 57c | 48.06$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…1c6ebacked No | 42c | 47.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed No | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12c…b9ecbacked Yes | 27c | 44.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Yes | 49c | 44.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…3a2abacked Yes | 56c | 44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcccd…4a1bbacked No | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x269f…c358backed Yes | 57c | 35.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…85e2backed No | 46c | 34.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…f6bfbacked Yes | 58c | 30.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…d0d2backed Yes | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 56c | 18.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-03-01?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?No won
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.