Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-01?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcdb685e64025bd18c46311569d142916363edb136df1fbb1df117a7c90dc566
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,671
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,671 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 28c | 16,008$4,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,440.89 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc01b…7718backed Yes | 76c | 15,390$11,676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,713.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 23c | 8,395$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.43 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 32c | 6,380$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,071.18 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc65…c08ebacked Yes | 58c | 5,995$3,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,493.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 18c | 4,000$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735 | 143 | 15.4%22 W · 121 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 3,324$2,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,641.48 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…7d29backed No | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed No | 6c | 1,200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 26c | 982.85$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.47 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 55c | 872.43$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.78 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed Yes | 42c | 793.49$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…1511backed Yes | 78c | 500$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 59c | 475.75$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.32 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…a948backed No | 35c | 341.37$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.48 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7c…920ebacked Yes | 48c | 300.29$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 20c | 294.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.78 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 24c | 279.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.47 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 21c | 249.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.16 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…dea4backed No | 20c | 234.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6757…a8bebacked No | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…dacebacked No | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 20c | 199.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.76 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 21c | 196.72$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.41 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed No | 23c | 170.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 22c | 164.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 37c | 162$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d73…9d35backed Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Yes | 68c | 147.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 79c | 144.56$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.46 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 20c | 86.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed No | 30c | 80.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…0fb9backed Yes | 63c | 79.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 37c | 75.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…6e30backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751b…90fbbacked Yes | 68c | 66.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 75c | 60.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 53c | 59.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 22c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…27d6backed Yes | 48c | 54.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa43…22f3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 21c | 46.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b15…d362backed Yes | 48c | 45.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 34c | 41.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…d0d2backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 77c | 40.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfc…83c6backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb9…fd83backed Yes | 80c | 39.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 78c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5a…9b3bbacked No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 33.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…f913backed Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 78c | 26.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…e958backed Yes | 65c | 26.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5a…7322backed Yes | 70c | 23.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Karlsruher SC win on 2026-03-01?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Karlsruher SC end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-03-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.