Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01abb8198588d95c1b0c8abdc50ba379c33c28ede0e93f4f0406710d96886198

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 23, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $786,139
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $421,125

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $786,139 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	39,632$826 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$826.04	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	33,842$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.59	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b06…c11bbacked Yes	0c	19,580$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9836…6f2ebacked Yes	0c	17,189$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	16,632$932 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$932.35	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf71b…888bbacked Yes	0c	15,828$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	14,952$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.69	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	10c	12,000$1,159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,158.95	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	9,589$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.6	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	9,185$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,617$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.35	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	8,377$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9384…8a95backed Yes	0c	6,380$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	7c	6,359$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.62	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	5,919$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.96	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	8c	5,520$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.16	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0828…746fbacked Yes	19c	5,273$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeed8…2d83backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6410…ee60backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	5c	4,848$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.49	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda63…b031backed Yes	5c	4,663$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.4	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	8c	4,562$381 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.88	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	4,110$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$395.01	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf0…f098backed Yes	1c	4,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.25	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes	1c	3,983$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.11	180	12.8%23 W · 157 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	11c	3,513$383 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$382.85	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	16c	3,294$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2f9…a3c5backed Yes	0c	3,089$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	11c	3,000$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.02	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	2,937$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6787…321dbacked Yes	5c	2,916$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.05	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	7c	2,604$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.58	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	13c	2,358$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.79	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes	2c	2,332$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	43	4.7%2 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71a1…19e7backed Yes	12c	2,331$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.01	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	2,305$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.52	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	4c	2,288$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.08	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	2,220$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.86	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	12c	2,200$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.41	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9837…16aabacked Yes	10c	2,129$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.87	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,050$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x745f…e29dbacked Yes	4c	2,009$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8640…2f0bbacked Yes	12c	1,940$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.06	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes	1c	1,762$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	12c	1,706$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.54	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c5…6f61backed Yes	18c	1,688$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes	10c	1,606$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.92	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	3c	1,599$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfef7…8367backed Yes	17c	1,559$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacc5…efd9backed Yes	15c	1,516$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.33	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	1,498$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.21	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes	1c	1,473$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e69…e777backed Yes	1c	1,424$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.87	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes	1c	1,406$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	96	26%25 W · 71 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	8c	1,400$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.15	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba9e…7fbdbacked Yes	1c	1,372$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	11c	1,326$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	4c	1,322$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	108	18.5%20 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0d…c5fdbacked Yes	12c	1,306$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-89.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	12c	1,265$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.25	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	4c	1,261$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	79	13.9%11 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb2…317bbacked Yes	15c	1,236$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.66	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	12c	1,225$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd50b…e674backed Yes	8c	1,187$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.02	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	8c	1,049$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.85	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	4c	1,030$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.04	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	1,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0568…f532backed Yes	13c	1,000$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.44	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-2.0wins	-0.08per pick	15cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes	14c	1,000$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.4	123	11.4%14 W · 109 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-43%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	2c	936.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes	11c	909.09$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3d6c…5f23backed Yes	1c	850.03$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	6c	849.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	11c	845$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.36	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x860b…b4a1backed Yes	18c	800$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	3c	793.24$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.54	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	7c	770$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.69	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	3c	759.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x439b…e1dfbacked Yes	15c	737.53$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.7	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7022…cfbdbacked Yes	10c	700$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.9wins	+0.17per pick	19cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac9c…19c8backed Yes	13c	695.13$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	684.61$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes	17c	650.62$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	67	25.4%17 W · 50 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes	13c	650$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.3	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6470…b017backed Yes	10c	642.65$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.22	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	7cpaid	+66%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	3c	600$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc9e…6693backed Yes	12c	600$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	66	31.8%21 W · 45 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	9c	599.98$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f2d…9a86backed Yes	17c	578.24$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.3	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.19per pick	14cpaid	+258.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c2d…d7cebacked Yes	18c	550$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.5	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	12c	543.77$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.25	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	4c	494.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ec6…20d4backed Yes	13c	476.92$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	83	25.3%21 W · 62 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event