Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7267ba03e88ffaf965c4563551ec1fe8e320e4e4e85f0852ab75d393fdd4fd2

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 24, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $722,271
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $319,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $722,271 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	30,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.64	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	24,225$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.22	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	15,591$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.74	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6f4a…1a75backed Yes	2c	12,148$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.04	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	12,143$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.89	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ff…4739backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	2c	11,900$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.81	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	1c	11,309$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.23	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	10,665$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbce8…b49bbacked Yes	1c	10,000$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.5	71	15.5%11 W · 60 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-41.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae65…da6dbacked Yes	1c	9,958$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.58	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	0c	8,659$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	8,218$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.27	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff26…c6e9backed Yes	2c	6,913$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	6,448$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.86	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,952$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.73	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	5,534$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.66	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6172…bb67backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	4,393$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	3,759$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.99	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	1c	3,688$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.55	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	3,375$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.94	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	3,167$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.51	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,918$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	2c	2,794$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.35	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	2,560$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.78	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,311$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.2	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	1c	2,285$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	1c	2,278$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	2c	2,010$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.38	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	3c	2,000$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,990$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.87	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	1,890$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	2c	1,847$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.37	79	13.9%11 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	2c	1,800$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.07	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	1,794$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.46	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0828…746fbacked Yes	1c	1,602$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes	2c	1,581$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.7	130	14.6%19 W · 111 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6787…321dbacked Yes	2c	1,500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1bb2…317bbacked Yes	2c	1,500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.9	39	17.9%7 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	1,384$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.21	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15cc…40a3backed Yes	2c	1,324$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.31	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	6cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,245$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.65	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	2c	1,200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	1,174$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.26	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,146$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.43	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes	2c	1,011$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.95	79	15.2%12 W · 67 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd581…bd3bbacked Yes	1c	848.55$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	843.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.04	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f80…7a52backed Yes	2c	833.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.14	52	38.5%20 W · 32 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	2c	713.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ec0…a0eabacked Yes	2c	646.39$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	3c	420$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.17	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	3c	350$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 29 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event