TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf2ff…4739

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
47
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Weather, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 55 out of 100; worst Commodities at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT1947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+537.6%+$62.48
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C or higher on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.14
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$25.53
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C or higher on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$4.38
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+96.9%+$14.65
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+136.1%+$33.43
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.21
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+139.4%+$26.2
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+67.4%+$24.21
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.47
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.08
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.46
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$5.5
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+204.8%+$22.96
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.02
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.8
All 19 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.98
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+25%+$4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+42.2%+$8.9
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.94
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.06
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+89%+$47.1
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+201.8%+$36.24
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.55
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$11.7
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
All 13 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid+22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$14.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Qingdao Eagles vs. Ningbo Rocketsbacked Qingdao Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$12.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Mirra Andreeva vs Anastasia Potapovabacked Mirra Andreeva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+57.8%+$10.83
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+52.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+52.9%+$17.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$15.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$351.68
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.