Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda473794ab0f8659e2099b91c025371da0e555cb4635b31444ff89bf7310e8df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed No | 2c | 1,400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked No | 1c | 1,364$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 3c | 666.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 42c | 476.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 383.51$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 39c | 329.39$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.51 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 312$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 36c | 290.67$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.93 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 41c | 242.64$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.91 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 6c | 238.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 236.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 56c | 206.61$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.44 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 189.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.33 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 176.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 31c | 175.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 78c | 155.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.68 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 57c | 151.65$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.78 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 68c | 150.23$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 149.19$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.46 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 71c | 148.51$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 32c | 142.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 40c | 140.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.9 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 45c | 135.34$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.88 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 37c | 114.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 57c | 111.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 108.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.76 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a4…14abbacked Yes | 21c | 108.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…33a9backed Yes | 53c | 108.36$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 58c | 106.34$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 104.78$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 59c | 100.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0d…9bbdbacked Yes | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 60c | 99.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a773backed Yes | 44c | 98.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 42c | 96.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 53c | 95.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.29 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked Yes | 44c | 92.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 36c | 88.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.22 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5c…ef7fbacked No | 48c | 87.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.83 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…3ae6backed No | 75c | 87.28$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 51c | 77.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked Yes | 40c | 75.95$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.61 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 32c | 75.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed Yes | 45c | 75.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 51c | 74.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 64c | 73.13$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 36c | 73.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 68.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 70c | 65.1$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 41c | 60.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.79 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…4739backed Yes | 42c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…ca1dbacked No | 64c | 55.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 35c | 53.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.63 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 56c | 52.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…72cfbacked Yes | 33c | 52.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed No | 55c | 52.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 53c | 49.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 67c | 46.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66c9…bd85backed Yes | 41c | 45.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671e…a831backed Yes | 44c | 42.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…895ebacked Yes | 50c | 42.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e2…e5f5backed No | 63c | 42.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa067…4845backed Yes | 52c | 40.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 59c | 40.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 44c | 40.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 51c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 42c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 41c | 38.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 37c | 37.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ef…3c3abacked No | 52c | 36.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed Yes | 36c | 35.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 42c | 35.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 34.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 61c | 34.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 62c | 34.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e9…0beabacked Yes | 39c | 34.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed Yes | 62c | 34.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 65c | 32.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed No | 55c | 32.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567a…fb35backed No | 61c | 31.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 37c | 30.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…5349backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 64c | 27.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b9…b47fbacked No | 55c | 27.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4709…6366backed No | 39c | 27.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…f426backed No | 54c | 27.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…8ac5backed No | 55c | 26.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…0ab6backed No | 55c | 25.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x302f…141cbacked Yes | 40c | 24.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed No | 60c | 23.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 66c | 23.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…461ebacked Yes | 54c | 23.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 61c | 22.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 48c | 22.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 66c | 22.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28c8…dc79backed Yes | 55c | 20.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.