Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ab8c4e9956a36f109b4ac583dab3c45b7e9f568f2bbe314268c5ee18a99c832
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc243…1f1abacked Yes | 0c | 7,230$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 603.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 500.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 9c | 250.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 234.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…ceb2backed Yes | 21c | 215.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 12c | 200.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 13c | 175.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 10c | 172.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…e07dbacked Yes | 12c | 160$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 153.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 138.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 11c | 125.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 24c | 123.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 16c | 118.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ff…13eabacked Yes | 19c | 110.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 16c | 110.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 24c | 110.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c4…e793backed Yes | 18c | 100.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 13c | 89.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 84.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 12c | 84.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 17c | 79.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 76c | 72.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 80c | 61.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7790…427abacked Yes | 32c | 58.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…7b4bbacked Yes | 20c | 56.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 25c | 55.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x446b…132abacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 21c | 48.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 28c | 36.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 33.09$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 29.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 27.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 73c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked No | 74c | 19.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…2c0dbacked No | 72c | 19.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 18.78$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcab…d847backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.