Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21e46ebb65b3892942a4441f2e9a5376fde0db2ab9655ea776d9fa1469c673da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,158$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.52 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 285.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed No | 73c | 265.03$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.33 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 188.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 52c | 168.19$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.79 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 136.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 34c | 127.48$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 121.68$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 59c | 117.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 115.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 38c | 114.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 59c | 102.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…ceb2backed Yes | 47c | 100.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3773…f0ddbacked Yes | 37c | 98.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 79.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 27c | 73.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0b…961fbacked No | 39c | 73.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 63c | 73.16$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 31c | 68.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 29c | 67.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 64.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 24c | 56.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 34c | 55.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 48c | 54.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 50c | 53.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 67c | 52.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 47c | 52.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 34c | 51.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 67c | 50.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 31c | 49.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 43c | 49.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…7b4bbacked Yes | 50c | 49.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 45.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 31c | 44.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 71c | 43.74$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…4739backed Yes | 30c | 43.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…841ebacked No | 69c | 42.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc2…093dbacked Yes | 35c | 40.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed Yes | 32c | 40.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes | 29c | 39.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 33c | 38.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 36.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 34.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 34.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 58c | 33.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 30.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 34c | 29.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…461ebacked Yes | 35c | 29.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 35c | 28.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 72c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 25.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 69c | 23.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…1096backed Yes | 49c | 22.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 21.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…85f4backed No | 70c | 20.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 61c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…f66abacked Yes | 51c | 19.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on April 13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.