Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40f0750d3bd1c163dd82cf52b84340992a6fce5c73fc0d849dcb252dbd482dc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $135,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4876…e72abacked Yes | 0c | 16,828$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b76…c036backed Yes | 0c | 11,487$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 5c | 10,135$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed Yes | 0c | 9,197$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 0c | 6,421$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,916$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,691$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed Yes | 8c | 1,036$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.62 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 963.45$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc862…e047backed Yes | 21c | 866.9$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 858.68$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.54 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 755.16$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 13c | 653.88$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.96 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 530.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 13c | 518.42$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 57c | 517.34$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.3 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 15c | 503.7$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.08 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 4c | 468.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 466.98$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 21c | 458.02$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.83 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 445.97$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 417.15$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.88 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 12c | 392.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 4c | 355.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 324.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 6c | 308.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 304.24$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 21c | 303.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 5c | 302.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…23fcbacked No | 75c | 279.77$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Yes | 35c | 270.81$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 8c | 270.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 22c | 264.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 17c | 245.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 13c | 239.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 238.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9047…2959backed No | 53c | 216.44$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 7c | 213.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…0333backed Yes | 23c | 200.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 40c | 193.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8321…506dbacked Yes | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 180$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed No | 77c | 174.67$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 164.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 156.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 21c | 153.73$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…5259backed Yes | 27c | 152.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 79c | 148.89$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ff…29e0backed Yes | 30c | 147.73$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes | 19c | 139.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 73 | 26%19 W · 54 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3af…e1c6backed No | 80c | 137.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 19c | 136.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 19c | 134.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 19c | 127.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 17c | 123.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 20c | 121.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 54c | 114.74$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8abc…c682backed Yes | 28c | 111$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…5754backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 23c | 98.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 21c | 97.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 19c | 94.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…ae7bbacked Yes | 19c | 91.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 90 | 28.9%26 W · 64 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +35%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 26c | 78.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 64c | 77.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 76.18$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…55edbacked Yes | 26c | 72.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66bd…55b1backed Yes | 18c | 69.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 43c | 68.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…1faebacked Yes | 20c | 67.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b11…9f63backed Yes | 23c | 65.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…4739backed Yes | 16c | 64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1931…17d0backed No | 78c | 62.72$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 42c | 62.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 51c | 61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…614dbacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…52d1backed No | 80c | 59.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 79c | 59.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 80c | 58.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 18c | 56.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…ceb2backed Yes | 20c | 56.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc845…a654backed Yes | 27c | 55.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…41eebacked Yes | 34c | 55.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 20c | 55.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 19c | 53.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed Yes | 75c | 52.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 48c | 51.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8527…2b68backed Yes | 20c | 50.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 77c | 49.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 30c | 48.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 57c | 47.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.