Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52974ff60cc31313effaecbb967579f1ce0c53501af96ad08bf4edb36b9babcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,138
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 2c | 2,197$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 4c | 1,685$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.15 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 6c | 923.87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 775.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 2c | 727.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767c…5441backed Yes | 9c | 724.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb05…1b2fbacked Yes | 13c | 710.23$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +118%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 4c | 680.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 4c | 647.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 7c | 590.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…23fcbacked Yes | 6c | 573.43$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 7c | 517.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 3c | 494.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 4c | 493.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 444.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 5c | 425.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 6c | 420$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 4c | 415$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 7c | 405.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 6c | 399.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 394.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed Yes | 3c | 389.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 7c | 387.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe238…d3fcbacked Yes | 6c | 347.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 8c | 343.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…e3fabacked Yes | 5c | 320.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 4c | 301.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed Yes | 6c | 300.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 5c | 289.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 9c | 260$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…0d17backed Yes | 8c | 249.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4b…4fc5backed Yes | 8c | 232.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 5c | 212.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 205.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…7676backed Yes | 8c | 199.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 7c | 183.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 7c | 179.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 8c | 178.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked Yes | 8c | 168.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed Yes | 7c | 155.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3208…768fbacked Yes | 8c | 152.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…3e9dbacked Yes | 7c | 145.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 10c | 140.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…57f6backed Yes | 9c | 137.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 9c | 130.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 9c | 120.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 10c | 113.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.