Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99e03886a5c3aa479e418ad9508134e92566f7119129cb0ff21f28d30318b680
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,004
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e84…e08dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,867$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 0c | 6,481$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb05…1b2fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,700$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.79 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +118%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 1,569$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 6c | 1,204$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.71 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 1,042$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 7c | 1,012$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.24 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 3c | 729.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…7a17backed Yes | 12c | 705.04$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…29eebacked Yes | 6c | 698.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 4c | 676.53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 5c | 627.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 5c | 613.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3f0ebacked Yes | 3c | 598.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 10c | 564.67$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.91 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 8c | 547.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.11 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…3e9dbacked Yes | 4c | 545.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5685…3056backed Yes | 4c | 530.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 6c | 499.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed Yes | 10c | 474.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 5c | 452.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd335…14a7backed Yes | 9c | 446.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 3c | 398.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd8…5d8bbacked Yes | 8c | 396.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed Yes | 6c | 350.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ca…9756backed Yes | 6c | 335.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 7c | 305.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 4c | 300.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…5401backed Yes | 7c | 289.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 285.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a1…a4c2backed Yes | 7c | 276.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…57f6backed Yes | 14c | 244.59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 10c | 241.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…4d6dbacked Yes | 6c | 222.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 10c | 211.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 10c | 199.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 13c | 194.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…89f5backed Yes | 13c | 97.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.