TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,336
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,336 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa20c…451abacked Yes6c2,717$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.828016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x04ff…29e0backed Yes1c1,993$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.23633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes25c1,609$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.724,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes4c1,051$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1157044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5546…c8cebacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209819.4%19 W · 79 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc862…e047backed Yes37c949.43$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.3350%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes17c834.62$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.535,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes7c600$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4249038.8%190 W · 300 L+24.4wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Yes25c560.87$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.71911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-55.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes24c549.24$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2156627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes4c499.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c492.89$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No67c488.78$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.1712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes21c475.75$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x3511…23fcbacked Yes22c470.69$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.542050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b1…a8e8backed No15c413.49$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.4716335%57 W · 106 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8d…3257backed Yes13c410$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.620025%50 W · 150 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes14c393.07$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.81,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes16c365.04$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.868,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No63c364.46$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.232,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c317.63$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.497,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes15c304.9$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.151,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes16c247.9$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2998738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes12c241.58$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.533,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No77c236.52$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.0720958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes6c233.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0514022.1%31 W · 109 L+10.4wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+25.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes23c227.54$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.417445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes13c222$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8656118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes15c216.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2145619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89e3…5d22backed No60c211.61$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.786764.2%43 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes37c211.49$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.2130428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5581…8495backed No76c209.03$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.154062.5%25 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc393…9161backed Yes22c199.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$454845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes15c193.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8128119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes18c192.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6960523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc073…b1e8backed No69c184.67$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdad6…0d14backed Yes18c178.25$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9614829.7%44 W · 104 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes13c178.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.672,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes22c176.88$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7423035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed Yes16c176.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3795852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes24c170.15$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.877534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99e7…44c3backed Yes7c169.05$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.046729.9%20 W · 47 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick24cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes44c168.44$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.416625.8%17 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed Yes26c168.31$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0713242.4%56 W · 76 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6641…ceb2backed Yes18c153.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.542123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes26c140.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.6812226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed No74c136.96$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1818668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes21c135.98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1551321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8321…506dbacked Yes14c132.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.240%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc12f…5c57backed Yes14c130.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2819338.9%75 W · 118 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.082,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaea…95a9backed Yes16c120.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.261729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No56c120.56$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.584,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c115.63$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.539,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes24c115.42$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.934535.6%16 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1bd…b85abacked No77c114.32$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.393259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x24fe…3419backed Yes14c107.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0121235.8%76 W · 136 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes25c105.78$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6828517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef6a…18e8backed No80c104.71$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.227360.3%44 W · 29 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ea8…e6cfbacked Yes19c102.17$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197326%19 W · 54 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3045127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c9c…3c72backed Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1790%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.526738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes13c99.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1373927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes18c99.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9613424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes19c99.08$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.827143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe52c…016abacked No73c97.71$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1916631.9%53 W · 113 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes20c93.43$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6926236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d4…fa02backed No80c93.18$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.642846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes21c92.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.231,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes23c90.17$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1241046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked No77c89.57$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.63271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes15c88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.217838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3c4…e793backed Yes21c87.09$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.424223.8%10 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes55c85.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3414645.2%66 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes41c85.39$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6299962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes15c84.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7459125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdeee…7c09backed No41c81.35$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.949351.6%48 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0c34…57f6backed Yes24c80.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.162425%6 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ada…4908backed Yes25c78.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.67959.5%47 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes18c78.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.933535.2%118 W · 217 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes25c77.48$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0517643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes14c76.55$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.082307.8%18 W · 212 L-0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes24c76.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.682,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d89…c771backed Yes28c74.24$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7970%0 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes27c74.08$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.333,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x113d…a5e6backed Yes14c73.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes17c73.09$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.531,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No59c64.69$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes18c64.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe238…d3fcbacked Yes18c63.37$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45e6…8fcabacked No79c61.96$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.012272.7%16 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+48.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbdd7…a774backed Yes42c61.74$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.962227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa636…95f3backed No77c60.04$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.673658.3%21 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21b8…47f4backed Yes58c59.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes20c58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.637644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…17fbbacked Yes28c55.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.331850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes68c55.04$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6219720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.