Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0efbc1865eb14395334e500b14da4b3e9335be3267d926a5d91047c1e4453df3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 10c | 7,986$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.71 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,516$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.05 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3862…aa32backed No | 75c | 1,416$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3511…23fcbacked Yes | 14c | 1,087$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.74 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 960.07$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed No | 80c | 933.7$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed Yes | 11c | 896.61$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc862…e047backed Yes | 76c | 896.55$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 833.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 735$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 28c | 732.83$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 70c | 717.38$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504.02 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 14c | 699.9$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.38 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 658.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 24c | 635.45$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.67 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 600.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 5c | 523.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 25c | 504.3$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.85 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 4c | 499.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 498.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 7c | 440.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 11c | 431.84$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 11c | 371.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 10c | 370.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 77c | 347.15$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.23 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 9c | 341.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 10c | 336.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 31c | 335.96$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 322.64$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x26eb…c940backed No | 71c | 320$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb05…1b2fbacked Yes | 15c | 300.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +118%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 9c | 300$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 7c | 298.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 10c | 287.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 64c | 284.84$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.13 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 252.57$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc3…37b9backed Yes | 4c | 240.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 7c | 237.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…e3fabacked Yes | 5c | 236.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 51c | 235.19$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.43 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 18c | 233.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 233.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 69c | 232.82$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.36 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 229.37$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 60c | 227.82$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 15c | 225.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 22c | 219.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 207.22$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…ceb2backed Yes | 14c | 200.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe238…d3fcbacked Yes | 38c | 200$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 8c | 192.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 132 | 42.4%56 W · 76 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes | 18c | 189.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 70c | 180.44$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.31 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…95a9backed Yes | 15c | 175.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92c9…c500backed Yes | 21c | 168.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 47c | 167.25$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 79c | 158.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 14c | 155.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa819…129abacked Yes | 65c | 144.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21b8…47f4backed Yes | 31c | 142.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 28c | 141.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 15c | 129.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 14c | 126.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c34…57f6backed Yes | 16c | 122.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 13c | 118.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 47c | 117.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 10c | 112.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 55c | 105.91$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…9fbdbacked Yes | 41c | 103.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 64c | 102.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…9161backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1535…d77bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes | 54c | 98.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 12c | 93.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd952…1aeabacked Yes | 13c | 91.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…f31cbacked Yes | 14c | 90.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 87.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 18c | 76.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 25c | 74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 73.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc073…b1e8backed No | 71c | 73.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes | 23c | 71.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ff…29e0backed Yes | 34c | 69.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 31c | 69.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ede…86febacked Yes | 15c | 65.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 25c | 62.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…52d1backed No | 78c | 62.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c84…88f3backed Yes | 17c | 61.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…e08dbacked Yes | 28c | 61.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 80c | 55.13$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 53.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…1a68backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on April 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.