TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$84,582
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$77,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,582 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa20c…451abacked Yes10c7,986$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823.718016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes51c1,516$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$768.0529953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3862…aa32backed No75c1,416$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.13875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3511…23fcbacked Yes14c1,087$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.742050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No63c960.07$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.8412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1775…85b0backed No80c933.7$743 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.436648.4%177 W · 189 L+25.4wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes11c896.61$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.147534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc862…e047backed Yes76c896.55$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.0750%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes7c833.97$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes5c735$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.496219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed No28c732.83$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$528.354,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes70c717.38$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.0225362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes14c699.9$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.389919.2%19 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes11c658.37$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.141,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes24c635.45$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.6756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes5c600.59$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.137,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes5c523.69$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5551321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes25c504.3$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8518668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes4c499.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.213010.8%14 W · 116 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes12c498.32$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.181,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes7c440.3$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8886420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf2e…c770backed Yes11c431.84$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3939541.3%163 W · 232 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa17…aa48backed Yes11c371.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9112226.2%32 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.08per pick18cpaid+133.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes10c370.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6528517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No77c347.15$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.2367158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes9c341.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8660523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes10c336.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3925742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6316…7488backed Yes31c335.96$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.2715334%52 W · 101 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c322.64$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.447,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x26eb…c940backed No71c320$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.081729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb05…1b2fbacked Yes15c300.72$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.761618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid+118%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes4c300$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes9c300$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.456118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes7c298.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.982307.8%18 W · 212 L-0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes10c287.34$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3334319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No64c284.84$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.132,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes34c252.57$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xfbc3…37b9backed Yes4c240.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.447464.9%48 W · 26 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes7c237.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6656131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f58…e3fabacked Yes5c236.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.711118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-69.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb70d…43f4backed Yes51c235.19$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.4317358.4%101 W · 72 L+14.3wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+56.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes18c233.24$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.977445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c233.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.822,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb185…48c1backed Yes69c232.82$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.3619720.8%41 W · 156 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c229.37$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.934,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No60c227.82$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.6998160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes15c225.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.826738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes22c219.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7730428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes28c207.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.95,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6641…ceb2backed Yes14c200.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.412123.8%5 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-48.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe238…d3fcbacked Yes38c200$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed Yes8c192.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5113242.4%56 W · 76 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ac0…071ebacked Yes18c189.34$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.513271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+29.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked Yes70c180.44$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.318946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfaea…95a9backed Yes15c175.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.21729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c9…c500backed Yes21c168.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.335437%20 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+27.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes47c167.25$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.973927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes79c158.31$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7224066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes14c155.59$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3598738.1%376 W · 611 L+80.8wins+0.08per pick30cpaid+32.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa819…129abacked Yes65c144.55$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.24616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.36per pick53cpaid-68.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21b8…47f4backed Yes31c142.66$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes28c141.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.952,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c129.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.082,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1a9…d211backed Yes15c129.81$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.343818.4%7 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick21cpaid+81.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes14c126.36$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0926236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c34…57f6backed Yes16c122.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.32425%6 W · 18 L-2.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-38.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb666…8f47backed Yes13c118.06$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.274535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x40eb…ade9backed Yes47c117.19$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0649547.1%233 W · 262 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes10c112.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.182419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes55c105.91$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.091,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1246…9fbdbacked Yes41c103.33$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.56560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d3…3f0ebacked No64c102.59$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4220958.4%122 W · 87 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3646…ba5abacked Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3540741.3%168 W · 239 L+32.5wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+21.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc393…9161backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.84845.8%22 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1535…d77bbacked Yes14c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.57143.7%31 W · 40 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1213424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5f…08d5backed Yes54c98.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.174367.4%29 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes12c93.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6241046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xd952…1aeabacked Yes13c91.97$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-39.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc92…f31cbacked Yes14c90.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.311145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes15c87.35$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.319,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ada…4908backed Yes18c76.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.777959.5%47 W · 32 L+6.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes25c74$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.526142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes25c73.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.941,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc073…b1e8backed No71c73.06$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13bc…f77ebacked Yes23c71.09$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.394839.6%19 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04ff…29e0backed Yes34c69.87$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.67633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd7…a774backed Yes31c69.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.32227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-41%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ede…86febacked Yes15c65.59$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes25c62.31$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8832044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x71cf…52d1backed No78c62.04$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c84…88f3backed Yes17c61.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.72657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e84…e08dbacked Yes28c61.32$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.321580%12 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick65cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No31c60$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa26f…1071backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2637644.9%169 W · 207 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…6604backed Yes35c59.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7112856.3%72 W · 56 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeee…7c09backed No80c55.13$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.069351.6%48 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes26c53.73$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.22,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb95e…1a68backed Yes70c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355052%26 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.