TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,018
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,832

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,018 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes19c2,928$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.784,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes13c1,963$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.413,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes5c1,425$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.46610.6%7 W · 59 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-66.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes28c917.58$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.9212033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes3c833.7$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.871,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a99…1838backed No79c515.47$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.999770.1%68 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick75cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8da1…1a62backed Yes21c394.85$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.49250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd38…ddadbacked No72c314.26$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7725449.2%125 W · 129 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c300.57$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.064,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88f9…53d7backed Yes33c285.09$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.272842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes6c259.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.685,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3886…b492backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2056118.4%103 W · 458 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes7c247.45$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2865625.8%169 W · 487 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5345…721ebacked Yes9c232.21$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes17c222.82$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xced9…9a40backed Yes32c219.3$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.88425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes16c215.29$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No79c205.76$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.1612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa79a…4883backed Yes23c164.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.937534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5605…5962backed Yes36c157.98$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes13c156.51$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8735232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0759…a93dbacked Yes21c150$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-71.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes24c127.48$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.724639.1%18 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No73c122.76$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2553437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes15c119.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182307.8%18 W · 212 L-0.5wins0.00per pick8cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed Yes12c107.16$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0428839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes17c103.1$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4959125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c101.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9729…038abacked Yes18c100.38$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.379037.8%34 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.512348%59 W · 64 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+24.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x48ff…13eabacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes17c99.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.893,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xffac…bbf5backed Yes41c98.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes27c97.87$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.771,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7404…d580backed Yes23c96.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2390…b882backed Yes12c93.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes11c92.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.332,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes17c88.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No66c87.35$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.982,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No66c85.58$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.991,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d0abbacked Yes34c83.55$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.384535.6%16 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick26cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes21c80.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.753,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes27c68.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.733033.3%10 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No78c68.04$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9727771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No68c65.54$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.9727167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes17c64.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x124a…b245backed Yes30c61.62$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.622454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6c6…b7ebbacked Yes37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3aeb…df1ebacked Yes31c59.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.591827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7f2…8d3cbacked Yes30c58.8$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes39c56.77$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4226738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c55.17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.887,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ff…4739backed Yes24c50.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.91947.4%9 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes36c50.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.045,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x470b…c331backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1014744.2%65 W · 82 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8547…39abbacked Yes29c49.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3114833.1%49 W · 99 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c63…fafebacked Yes32c49.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.882828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No76c48.28$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d86…9671backed Yes24c46.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.96833.8%23 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c44.15$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.929,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d08…54c9backed No65c44.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.258356.6%47 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x375d…62c5backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.68325.3%21 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7293…98e8backed Yes38c37.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.071618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes32c33.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6156131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No64c30.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28b9…d983backed Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-57%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4371…5049backed Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-54.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec6d…804bbacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.73342.4%14 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2427…52a2backed No68c29.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.524955.1%27 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc55…ee6ebacked Yes40c28.19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed No80c27.81$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6164460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x63de…21babacked No61c27.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b1…f426backed No74c24.72$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.343571.4%25 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick71cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1589…95e3backed No69c21.07$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.531747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47f7…0312backed No77c20.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.7814663%92 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1f9…1a73backed No76c19.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.683187.1%27 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick76cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4302…8d4fbacked No59c17.69$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.188253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked No79c12.66$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.6660851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.