Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e708d7121870c85f8f2a124be6dd12207d48d6e6f99ae7c467a8be4da6fe067
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,840
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2949…4cc8backed Yes | 75c | 1,059$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.78 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +7.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 906.54$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 75c | 743.97$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.51 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 717.55$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 12c | 402.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.91 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 9c | 399.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.99 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed No | 60c | 348.37$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.75 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcddb…befabacked Yes | 74c | 342$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 42c | 289.3$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.56 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 257.59$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 245.06$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 231.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 76c | 230.71$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 216.38$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.85 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 17c | 213.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.37 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 10c | 209.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.52 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc2…b3a5backed Yes | 12c | 207.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.49 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 16c | 200$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.8 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…580fbacked No | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 31c | 198.8$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.5 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 31c | 194.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.45 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…d4bcbacked Yes | 15c | 186.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.76 | 130 | 10.8%14 W · 116 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 66c | 185.67$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…0ee7backed Yes | 20c | 177.58$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 12c | 160.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.7 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 149.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.69 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb149…9cd3backed No | 9c | 149.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 146.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.87 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 133.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 131.76$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 26c | 130.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.43 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 35c | 129.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8a…8dc7backed Yes | 18c | 126.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.41 | 133 | 22.6%30 W · 103 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 25c | 121.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 10c | 120.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.38 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 62c | 120$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 38c | 117.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.55 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 52c | 116.84$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 40c | 116.18$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.28 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 13c | 114$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.68 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 42c | 113.37$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.85 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 42c | 113.25$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 27c | 112.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 34c | 111.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5b…6630backed No | 76c | 110.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 37c | 105.36$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 18c | 105.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a4…14abbacked Yes | 22c | 103.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x570f…be1abacked Yes | 10c | 99.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +385.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.09 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…0fa3backed Yes | 69c | 96.89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 20c | 95.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 18c | 94.12$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked No | 25c | 93.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72f…68e5backed Yes | 20c | 90.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 17c | 86.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 84.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.41 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed Yes | 63c | 78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…ac38backed No | 25c | 74.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 20c | 71.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 35c | 70.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.94 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed No | 29c | 63.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 19c | 58.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48ff…13eabacked Yes | 18c | 55.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.56 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe117…5c22backed Yes | 24c | 55.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed Yes | 40c | 54.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.17 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 54c | 52.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…b329backed No | 76c | 49.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 37c | 46.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0603…8f62backed Yes | 27c | 44.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 44.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 71c | 43.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.82 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 44c | 42.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744a…0ea8backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 80c | 38.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed Yes | 48c | 37.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 37c | 37.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 55c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…d983backed Yes | 78c | 32.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…b245backed Yes | 50c | 28.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 74c | 28.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 74c | 28.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac1…df27backed Yes | 49c | 27.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 80c | 25.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 64c | 25.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfa…bd06backed Yes | 70c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…15cebacked No | 57c | 20.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcae0…4a99backed No | 72c | 13.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.