TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb920…0ee7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
121
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Weather at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT5315.1%8 W · 45 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 53 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$28.8
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.31
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.8
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.6
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+72.1%+$12.57
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.4
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$203Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+470.4%+$955.14
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.07
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$84
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$155.76
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.1
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.67
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.69
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.24
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+830.2%+$535.46
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.79
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.21
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.27
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.28
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT3458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick58cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.6
Spread: Knicks (-1.5)backed Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.3
Pistons vs. 76ersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$11.37
Spread: Jazz (-4.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Thunder vs. Celticsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Spread: Lakers (-9.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Pelicans vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
Spread: Knicks (-8.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.56
Spread: Clippers (-11.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+52.6%+$35.68
Rockets vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+70.7%+$84.81
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$56.38
Spurs vs. Heatbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+52.8%+$108.6
Spread: Raptors (-2.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Raptors vs. Sunsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Spread: Raptors (-1.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Celtics (-10.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+86.2%+$91.98
Spread: Celtics (-9.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+105.1%+$51.25
Timberwolves vs. Celticsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$20.49
Spread: Nuggets (-9.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$26.58
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$24
Bucks vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$400
Spread: Suns (-10.5)backed Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$50.31
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-37.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.33
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+390.5%+$141.37
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.2
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on April 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.38
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$6.6
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$29
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.82
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.39
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or higher on April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.32
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.79
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.98
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.68
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.1
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT850%4 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+57.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$42
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$8.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+25.6%+$47.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.