Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ec2bfbcd1163c96788a084121baf55f6b15f4d4602765f79a82bfadae899aae

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $784,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $784,213 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 604 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	66,376$2,149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,149.33	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	19c	32,671$6,194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,193.83	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	24,589$4,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,199.78	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes	1c	20,218$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.57	238	19.3%46 W · 192 L	-6.2wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e19…3a62backed Yes	5c	16,747$876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.36	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	2c	13,678$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.91	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	13,509$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.75	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	3c	13,005$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.56	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	11,589$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.49	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	21c	11,085$2,328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,327.93	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	10,119$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.62	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3d50…c26bbacked Yes	3c	9,899$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.45	114	16.7%19 W · 95 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	0c	9,692$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.46	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	9,583$1,484 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,483.87	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	9,259$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.31	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dab…e581backed Yes	18c	8,982$1,577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,576.58	100	36%36 W · 64 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	4c	8,627$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.77	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	15c	8,515$1,284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,284.45	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	8,420$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.19	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	20c	8,270$1,629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,628.88	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes	1c	8,103$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.66	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-3.4wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	+139.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	8c	7,662$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$611.75	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdea3…1b1abacked Yes	1c	7,550$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.08	51	15.7%8 W · 43 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	13c	7,529$1,010 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,009.87	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	7c	7,342$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.76	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	9c	6,898$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$622.24	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	16c	6,862$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,110.57	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9314…6bd7backed Yes	2c	6,667$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.37	247	10.9%27 W · 220 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	11c	6,144$702 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702.24	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	21c	6,047$1,264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,263.56	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	4c	6,028$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.03	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x274c…4824backed Yes	21c	6,000$1,260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,259.94	84	25%21 W · 63 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-18%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	11c	5,802$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.99	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e14…7c43backed Yes	9c	5,756$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.96	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-51%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f6…db6fbacked Yes	5c	5,700$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.97	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	7c	5,253$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.37	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8928…4887backed Yes	8c	5,041$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$416.19	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	-3.9wins	-0.12per pick	48cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	1c	5,000$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.2	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	8c	5,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes	6c	4,961$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.99	285	26.7%76 W · 209 L	-11.5wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	8c	4,803$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.53	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes	23c	4,580$1,066 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,066.18	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	10c	4,500$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.56	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	9c	4,407$382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$381.98	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x03a0…e52abacked Yes	35c	4,318$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	9c	4,183$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.83	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0c5…8c8abacked Yes	3c	4,065$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.94	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefdc…e19ebacked Yes	27c	3,768$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked Yes	12c	3,565$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.9	207	35.3%73 W · 134 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	18c	3,478$631 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$630.75	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	8c	3,319$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.15	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes	25c	3,242$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800.49	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	75c	3,059$2,298 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$760.55	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	8c	3,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	16c	3,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	6c	2,954$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.93	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	9c	2,933$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.38	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	8c	2,814$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.46	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	16c	2,793$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.35	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes	30c	2,737$832 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$832.44	210	34.8%73 W · 137 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Yes	26c	2,625$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.99	70	25.7%18 W · 52 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60f7…b68abacked Yes	17c	2,587$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.66	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	4c	2,550$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.77	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacfb…ac3ebacked Yes	4c	2,528$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.4	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	22c	2,527$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.04	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	17c	2,509$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$437.05	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No	71c	2,460$1,742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$718.11	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	12c	2,449$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc6…0f6abacked Yes	17c	2,417$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.5	89	18%16 W · 73 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	6c	2,401$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.49	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1327…0119backed No	75c	2,344$1,750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$594.08	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	59cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	74c	2,261$1,682 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$579.24	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	4c	2,246$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.98	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	2,221$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.46	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	8c	2,220$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.6	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ef…e1edbacked Yes	3c	2,198$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.37	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	1c	2,182$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	16c	2,157$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.5	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	5c	2,139$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.77	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	9c	2,104$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.11	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5464…ce87backed Yes	33c	2,091$696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696.11	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-2.5wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	22c	2,088$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked No	78c	2,065$1,621 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$444.4	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14d…2563backed Yes	22c	2,032$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439	145	15.9%23 W · 122 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	7c	2,000$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.03	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	26c	2,000$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	2c	2,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	13c	2,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	12c	2,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes	17c	2,000$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	16c	2,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.99	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes	4c	1,983$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.01	103	22.3%23 W · 80 L	+8.6wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+59.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x60fc…03b0backed Yes	15c	1,938$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,900$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.4	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	15c	1,800$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.99	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc0…46a5backed Yes	5c	1,798$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.43	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	10c	1,747$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.63	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0dd…f987backed Yes	2c	1,745$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c3d…8d58backed Yes	11c	1,729$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.46	36	8.3%3 W · 33 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event