Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0adcf4ad08bc8c562d4cb50e0b177ff93a351a0a5905f77afe8b29471bdf26

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $598,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $598,660 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4e19…3a62backed Yes	1c	77,692$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.54	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	0c	64,479$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.34	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	35,988$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.96	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	33,021$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.62	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	25,090$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.95	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	19,902$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.05	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	0c	19,266$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.91	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	18,245$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.75	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e71…01bfbacked Yes	0c	17,891$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.39	72	11.1%8 W · 64 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	0c	14,500$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.84	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	13,238$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a52…baafbacked Yes	1c	12,855$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.42	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	12,778$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.14	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	12,499$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.7	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes	0c	12,430$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.43	54	0%0 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3247…4254backed Yes	0c	12,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	79	13.9%11 W · 68 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x907d…20c4backed Yes	0c	11,664$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	71	0%0 W · 71 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	0c	11,341$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.44	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	9,913$596 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.05	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	8,931$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.81	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	1c	7,810$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.77	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	7,715$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.05	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaed4…09afbacked Yes	0c	7,170$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	3cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa74…3067backed Yes	0c	6,449$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.07	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	0c	6,230$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.46	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	6,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.85	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	5,791$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.59	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	2c	5,680$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.38	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0790…34babacked Yes	0c	5,650$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.03	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes	0c	5,300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	427	19.2%82 W · 345 L	+23.3wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	5,169$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.88	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcded…b1ecbacked Yes	0c	5,115$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	1c	5,083$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.21	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	6c	4,500$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	4,226$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.34	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	4,153$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.2	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	4,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc0…46a5backed Yes	1c	3,842$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.39	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	3,813$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.32	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	3,800$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.9	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	0c	3,800$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,790$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.53	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3187…9476backed Yes	0c	3,500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,332$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.12	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes	1c	3,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7094…2c4dbacked Yes	1c	2,857$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	0c	2,814$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	2,620$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.9	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	5c	2,563$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.35	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05aa…e3c3backed Yes	0c	2,347$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	14cpaid	+201.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf13d…11aabacked Yes	1c	2,223$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	1c	2,222$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x45df…5b27backed Yes	1c	2,222$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.22	93	2.2%2 W · 91 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	1c	2,160$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.46	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.33	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x797e…fc29backed Yes	0c	2,025$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.09per pick	6cpaid	+134.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,014$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	6c	1,678$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.95	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	2c	1,579$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	4c	1,508$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.41	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	1,485$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…f3e8backed Yes	7c	1,459$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,385$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a5…a2b4backed Yes	6c	1,341$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.28	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	11cpaid	+119%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,308$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.67	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	1c	1,293$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.35	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	1c	1,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	5c	1,175$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.82	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	4c	1,138$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.6	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	1,110$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.11	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	2c	1,105$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes	1c	1,081$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.59	109	17.4%19 W · 90 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefa1…5aa4backed Yes	6c	1,036$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.49	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	4c	1,003$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.88	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0206…9b1dbacked Yes	5c	999.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd702…9694backed Yes	6c	999.97$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb82…7b94backed Yes	4c	930$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	6c	923.78$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaca…33a0backed Yes	1c	867.69$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	3cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…f85ebacked Yes	3c	822$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.55	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0761…0294backed Yes	3c	808$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.05	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	755.86$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.19	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b91…982dbacked Yes	1c	749.57$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.71	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	4cpaid	+82.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a1c…7bc6backed Yes	3c	743.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes	3c	700$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	6c	700$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	6c	676.13$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	655.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.87	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2965…6a44backed Yes	6c	638$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.28	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.23per pick	27cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecce…0ac0backed Yes	2c	630$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb1…9319backed Yes	2c	600.08$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	345	15.9%55 W · 290 L	+9.7wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43ad…da98backed Yes	6c	544.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-61%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	2c	544.66$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.38	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Yes	5c	538.56$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.8	161	10.6%17 W · 144 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event