Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a9ae4471c7f405103425ce8583c4a04a37efd751f93048a27aad04d23979799

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $397,794
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $184,178

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $397,794 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	22,457$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.14	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	17,631$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.49	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	15,160$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.65	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	0c	15,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	12,761$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.76	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7534…c561backed Yes	1c	10,718$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	10,663$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.99	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8333…a3cdbacked Yes	0c	10,439$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	6,226$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc64b…516dbacked Yes	1c	5,590$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c5…8c8abacked Yes	0c	4,467$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	0c	4,456$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	3,585$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.92	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7df2…01afbacked Yes	1c	3,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	1c	2,900$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.23	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	1c	2,710$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.84	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	0c	2,670$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.55	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,577$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb82…7b94backed Yes	1c	2,361$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	0c	2,199$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	2,105$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,933$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	1c	1,900$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76ef…b12fbacked Yes	1c	1,898$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-53%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…4d48backed Yes	1c	1,560$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	1c	1,412$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.46	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	1c	1,275$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	1c	1,250$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.31	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event