Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbc067c3c9772dd97d34e7505cb1a05ce44d3aa6a29a8482d7d71dd67c8e5a3c

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $66,382

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,382 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	30,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.9	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	22,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	17,269$527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$526.96	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x815f…a81abacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	7,197$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	6,263$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.09	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,651$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.09	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	3,400$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.04	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	2,558$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.12	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0679…fcefbacked Yes	2c	2,478$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.01	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+2.4wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaca…33a0backed Yes	1c	2,337$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.68	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	3cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	2,300$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.51	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes	1c	2,196$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.59	125	8.8%11 W · 114 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	2,084$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.95	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,002$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.48	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	3c	2,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	3c	2,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	1,917$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	1,596$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.06	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,574$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.57	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,570$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.36	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	2c	1,250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.92	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	1c	931.81$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed Yes	3c	795$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.73	43	7%3 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	4c	787$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.77	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67f1…3543backed Yes	2c	683$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	3c	597.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43ad…da98backed Yes	4c	547.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.26	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-61%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	4c	508.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x542d…8999backed Yes	4c	487.28$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	361.85$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	4c	345.56$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event