Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7499f6b996e49bc779f736cee57742757e3466d7cdacda8963558448800c25a7

Rebuilt 1 minute ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $121,914

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $121,914 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	48,991$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.98	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	21,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	16,203$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	13,721$545 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.1	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	38	0%0 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	0c	10,555$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	10,210$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	9,825$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.79	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	8,468$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.42	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	7,493$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.81	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	3c	6,903$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.98	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	5,554$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.32	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	4,303$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.55	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	2,890$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.65	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	2,814$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.79	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb82…7b94backed Yes	1c	2,658$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.28	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	2,149$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,119$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	2,033$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.33	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	3c	2,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	4c	2,000$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	2c	1,893$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.7	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,720$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	1c	1,699$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	2c	1,649$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.75	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	3c	1,500$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.49	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x458b…debfbacked Yes	1c	1,276$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	1,212$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	1,100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	2c	1,080$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.45	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	4c	984.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	3c	898.77$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	2c	864.96$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.74	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed Yes	4c	795$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.62	43	7%3 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ad…da98backed Yes	3c	654.65$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.02	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-61%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0ff1…a6d6backed Yes	2c	623.96$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	5c	620$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.38	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	3c	600$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5166…4db4backed Yes	4c	560$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	517.05$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.38	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0b…24e6backed Yes	2c	438$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd656…11d6backed Yes	2c	438$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b3c…ff9abacked Yes	4c	433.7$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.15	87	12.6%11 W · 76 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefa1…5aa4backed Yes	4c	391.66$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.67	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event