Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd5e9715fd5e0b6e0b0672a70d1b8dfffb9e18d94cf1cd162b2d37ece0b3e91f

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $363,635

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,635 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	118,599$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.6	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e19…3a62backed Yes	0c	67,245$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.07	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	23,506$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes	0c	19,129$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.13	54	0%0 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	0c	18,294$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.84	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca6…0ae3backed Yes	0c	17,990$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.97	189	39.2%74 W · 115 L	+15.8wins	+0.08per pick	31cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	17,489$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.49	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	15,362$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	0c	14,751$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.02	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	14,709$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	13,548$647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$647.31	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc6…43c4backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	0%0 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90fc…8d71backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5084…fb85backed Yes	0c	10,587$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	10	0%0 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,322$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.19	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	0c	8,367$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaed4…09afbacked Yes	0c	7,170$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	3cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05dd…305cbacked Yes	0c	6,159$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	4c	5,279$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.66	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	5,100$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.3	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	4,435$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.71	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	4,307$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.86	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x08b4…624ebacked Yes	1c	4,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	125	8.8%11 W · 114 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	3,672$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	3,500$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.93	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee2…6580backed Yes	3c	3,421$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.1	210	28.6%60 W · 150 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	1c	3,400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd523…3d1fbacked Yes	0c	3,398$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	8cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	3,360$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.65	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,199$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.93	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x754b…a66ebacked Yes	0c	3,188$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-63.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	3,096$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.26	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0790…34babacked Yes	0c	3,001$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.37	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb82…7b94backed Yes	1c	3,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.25	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	0c	2,908$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	2c	2,872$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.49	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,693$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.15	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	3c	2,193$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51a9…b036backed Yes	1c	1,740$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.84	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,630$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.51	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x458b…debfbacked Yes	1c	1,620$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,528$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.01	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes	1c	1,410$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	109	17.4%19 W · 90 L	-2.7wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43ad…da98backed Yes	5c	1,212$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-61%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0206…9b1dbacked Yes	4c	1,000$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	984.68$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.57	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	2c	972.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.17	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes	3c	947.81$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.46	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	1c	885.95$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaca…33a0backed Yes	1c	861.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	3cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f6c…97e7backed Yes	5c	821$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.69	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d42…6e4cbacked Yes	5c	803.5$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	64	3.1%2 W · 62 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa932…79a6backed Yes	3c	800$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	71	2.8%2 W · 69 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	3c	742.02$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x71f2…c86fbacked Yes	5c	675$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.43	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcad…df0ebacked Yes	5c	667$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4af7…8bcdbacked Yes	5c	651$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.85	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xefa1…5aa4backed Yes	5c	639.82$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.78	66	24.2%16 W · 50 L	+3.8wins	+0.06per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c9c…6824backed Yes	4c	600$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	75	6.7%5 W · 70 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	5c	553.72$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.47	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	4c	551.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a40…599ebacked Yes	2c	484.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	142	8.5%12 W · 130 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3636…34c4backed Yes	4c	456.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	43	7%3 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a12…ebb5backed Yes	5c	448$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb124…2b3ebacked Yes	5c	448$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.61	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x698a…14b9backed Yes	5c	448$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.85	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4631…c85cbacked Yes	5c	431$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f82…5b1cbacked Yes	5c	431$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb59c…3bc4backed Yes	5c	407$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6d…49d1backed Yes	5c	394.04$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb6e6…3e4fbacked Yes	5c	393$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.04	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf546…23b1backed Yes	5c	387$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e87…9b54backed Yes	5c	386.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8087…271ebacked Yes	5c	371$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.44	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9db7…7c98backed Yes	5c	355$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc0d0…9509backed Yes	5c	345$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.87	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x773c…c453backed Yes	5c	323$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.47	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	5c	313.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.32	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2103…4ff5backed Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedca…7cfabacked Yes	5c	285$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	5c	284.64$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.19	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	5c	253.32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6865…bea0backed Yes	5c	224$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8a…bed0backed Yes	5c	224$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a6…88dfbacked Yes	5c	221$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b2f…c046backed Yes	5c	221$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8654…3d99backed Yes	5c	201$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event