Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd09734f032e4c4408b89d63e60160e27d403fc3118c5c2770e0861e1aac9ac82

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $370,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,890 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x90ed…b5bcbacked Yes	0c	155,552$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.55	87	19.5%17 W · 70 L	+5.9wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	79,525$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.55	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb6f…b4acbacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	16,312$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.03	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcbc…97e6backed Yes	0c	15,150$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	13,077$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.32	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	12,972$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.12	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	2c	12,677$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	11,259$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.64	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes	0c	11,150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.15	54	0%0 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	10,989$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	10,759$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.32	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	9,748$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.91	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	8,250$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2f…c1acbacked Yes	2c	7,562$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.71	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes	0c	7,456$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	79	15.2%12 W · 67 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-59.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c5e…fa88backed Yes	1c	6,757$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.76	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	2c	6,429$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	5,741$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7534…c561backed Yes	2c	5,547$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	1c	5,296$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.09	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	1c	4,376$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.05	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37dc…a75cbacked Yes	1c	4,349$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.76	262	11.1%29 W · 233 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	1c	4,122$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	1c	3,959$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.07	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb57…6a21backed Yes	1c	3,334$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	1c	3,286$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	2,987$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.65	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	2,796$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.76	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	0c	2,705$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	1c	2,517$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0c5…8c8abacked Yes	1c	2,444$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.11	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	2c	2,300$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.15	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1a…86febacked Yes	1c	2,244$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.34	47	6.4%3 W · 44 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5f3…1fc1backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	2c	2,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	226	10.6%24 W · 202 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaaca…33a0backed Yes	1c	1,995$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.97	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	3cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb82…7b94backed Yes	1c	1,944$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.97	35	5.7%2 W · 33 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	1,877$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.25	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb104…10c9backed Yes	1c	1,837$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.82	50	24%12 W · 38 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes	1c	1,740$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.22	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	1,700$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.18	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	2c	1,297$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a97…d8a1backed Yes	4c	1,258$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.91	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	2c	1,137$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.21	301	10.3%31 W · 270 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a93…c89abacked Yes	2c	1,094$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	57	8.8%5 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	3c	1,075$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	1c	1,032$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.74	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-70.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22b8…8b13backed Yes	1c	999.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	135	13.3%18 W · 117 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	2c	833.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	2c	817.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.42	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…4d48backed Yes	3c	775.88$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.73	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	1c	769.47$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	2c	742.87$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea54…f674backed Yes	3c	740.54$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	63	23.8%15 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbabc…cc3abacked Yes	2c	689.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x394c…158cbacked Yes	3c	672.02$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.14	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.37per pick	13cpaid	+108.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…c9bfbacked Yes	2c	612.82$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-86.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8de4…fae1backed Yes	3c	466$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2013…7d72backed Yes	3c	389$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event