Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0e26527700656ed76e0019597869ef36b505b4b5016ee1db0471786e4635811a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1590…b65abacked Yes | 0c | 9,076$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…a3efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,645$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09dd…542fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,587$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,279$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf94…f69dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,263$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 861.22$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.25 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 775.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.92 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc8…0b2bbacked Yes | 37c | 699.96$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.98 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 643.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 14c | 420.87$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 23c | 365.27$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked No | 77c | 319.82$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 14c | 318.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 273.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce4…5385backed Yes | 15c | 258.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 256.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed No | 69c | 225.08$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 222.08$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.53 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes | 29c | 220.16$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.39 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 201.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac68…f1fcbacked Yes | 20c | 199.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 16c | 169.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 18c | 162.71$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 23c | 162.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd7…a774backed Yes | 42c | 157.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 150.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…fa04backed Yes | 22c | 146.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 24c | 140$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 16c | 130.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 14c | 127.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 53c | 116.3$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.52 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 53c | 106.24$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b11…ce49backed Yes | 17c | 105.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 81 | 13.6%11 W · 70 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf289…21cdbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.99 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb920…0ee7backed Yes | 44c | 99.28$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.68 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 95.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda90…590bbacked No | 80c | 85.78$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63c7…d693backed Yes | 21c | 84.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 83.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…47dbbacked Yes | 13c | 78.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 25c | 75.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 20c | 73.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 24c | 69.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 63.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf436…a633backed Yes | 55c | 62.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…8facbacked No | 78c | 58.49$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 74c | 56.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7302…4fedbacked Yes | 24c | 55.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 50.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 27c | 49.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c51…4841backed No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 25c | 47.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 80c | 30.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…bad2backed No | 47c | 29.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 66c | 29.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 43c | 28.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 68c | 27.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfafd…123fbacked No | 44c | 26.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 46c | 23.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 80c | 23.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 80c | 23.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…fb04backed Yes | 45c | 22.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 118 | 44.9%53 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 46c | 22.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…8e5fbacked No | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…8f6cbacked No | 72c | 19.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 80c | 18.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 73c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on April 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C or below on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on April 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.